Dan Tannenbaum

Managing Partner, India Capital · 1 appearance on the record.

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Dan Tennebaum is an American investor who oversees research and portfolio strategy at India Capital, an investment firm focused on Indian public equities. He previously worked at Bain & Company, served as Vice President of Business Development at India Life, and was a Principal at venture firm The View Group.

37statements → 29claims → 22claims resolved → 82%fully supported → 3.78/5average certainty → 1.78/5average debate potential → ≈4.5/5argument clarity, estimated →

18 supported 3 partly supported 1 contradicted 1 not yet assessed 6 not checkable as stated how the 29 claims stand · each chip opens the sources

1 prediction · 28 assertions · 7 insights · 1 disclosure · every statement was checked. The prediction and assertions are the 29 claims: statements the public record can support or contradict. 22 are resolved, 1 is not yet assessed, and 6 name no date, number or outcome precise enough to check. Everything else (opinions, insights, what ifs, disclosures) can never be settled by the record, so it carries no assessment.

The record, in short

What the tape says about how Dan argues and how the claims held up. Everything they said, and everything said about them, is in the tabs below.

Their most notable supported claim

Assertion Supported

Tannenbaum: Indian private markets returned 35 cents per dollar since 2000

“Of every dollar invested since 2000, something like 35 cents has come back, and I'm sure the industry will come good, but as I was sort of looking over the proverbial wall at other asset classes, it's not exactly apples to apples comparison, but for example, i…”

Dan Tannenbaum May 23, 2024 ▶ 18:56 Dan Tennebaum - The Case for India at India Capital (EP.387)

Their most notable contradicted claim

Assertion Contradicted

Tannenbaum: 90% to 95% of top Indian graduates emigrated in the 1990s

“I think of top Indian schools back then, 90, 95% of people left.”

Dan Tannenbaum May 23, 2024 ▶ 5:54 Dan Tennebaum - The Case for India at India Capital (EP.387)

Expressed certainty vs assessment result

none yet certainty 1

none yet certainty 2

75% certainty 3

92% certainty 4

none yet certainty 5

weighted support: a fully supported claim counts one, a partly supported claim counts half. Each filled bar is clickable and opens exactly those claims; "none yet" means nothing said at that certainty level has resolved yet

How they sound: not measured why? →

We measure speaking style by listening to the audio itself, and a fair number needs at least 2,000 words from one person on tape we have measured. There is too little of Dan Tannenbaum on measured tape to publish a rate. This says nothing about how they speak.

What they said37 Episodes1

Everything Dan Tannenbaum said on Capital Allocators that made the record, most notable first. Filter by type, assessment or year in the ledger →

Insight

Tannenbaum: Indian share prices historically lagged operational performance for years

“In the past, one of the hard things about India is you could be absolutely right about the operating performance trajectory, and the transmission to share prices could be incredibly slow.”

Dan Tannenbaum May 23, 2024 ▶ 1:14:29 Dan Tennebaum - The Case for India at India Capital (EP.387)

Prediction Open · timeframe May 2049

Tannenbaum: India can probably reach Peru's per-capita GDP in 25 years

“It's over two and a half decades to hit the level of Peru and Ecuador and Botswana. And that's something a lot of countries have done over the last half century, and I think probably India can do too.”

Dan Tannenbaum May 23, 2024 ▶ 1:20:47 Dan Tennebaum - The Case for India at India Capital (EP.387)

Assertion Contradicted

Tannenbaum: 90% to 95% of top Indian graduates emigrated in the 1990s

“I think of top Indian schools back then, 90, 95% of people left.”

Dan Tannenbaum May 23, 2024 ▶ 5:54 Dan Tennebaum - The Case for India at India Capital (EP.387)

Assertion Not checkable as stated

Tannenbaum: Indian regulators delayed startup funding a year over company name

“The venture capital investment that we were expecting any day from overseas, the government body called the Foreign Investment Promotion Board that was responsible for reviewing and approving this investment determined that all the paperwork was in order, ever…”

Dan Tannenbaum May 23, 2024 ▶ 11:41 Dan Tennebaum - The Case for India at India Capital (EP.387)

Assertion Not checkable as stated

Tannenbaum: In 1990s India, top university graduates made $100 per month

“The average Indian back then was earning barely a dollar a day, and even the people who were my colleagues who'd gone to top flight universities were earning maybe a hundred dollars a month.”

Dan Tannenbaum May 23, 2024 ▶ 12:38 Dan Tennebaum - The Case for India at India Capital (EP.387)

Assertion Supported

Tannenbaum: India Has 700 to 1,500 Institutionally Investable Public Companies

“There are more than 5000 publicly traded companies. Of which, depending on how you cut it, anywhere from 700 to upwards of 1500 are investable at institutional scale.”

Dan Tannenbaum May 23, 2024 ▶ 28:05 Dan Tennebaum - The Case for India at India Capital (EP.387)

Assertion Supported

Tannenbaum: India's private sector debt-to-GDP is ~53% compared to China's ~195%

“Private sector debt to GDP in India is like, 53%. I think in China it's a 195%.”

Dan Tannenbaum May 23, 2024 ▶ 31:20 Dan Tennebaum - The Case for India at India Capital (EP.387)

Assertion Partly supported

Tannenbaum: India adds 1M labor force entrants and 1M urban migrants monthly

“And now it's India where there are a million people joining the labor force each month and a million more moving from the hinterlands to the cities.”

Dan Tannenbaum May 23, 2024 ▶ 32:42 Dan Tennebaum - The Case for India at India Capital (EP.387)

Assertion Supported

Tannenbaum: Indian power transmission lender earns 22% ROE

“There is a specialized lender to power transmission companies that earns a 22% ROE”

Dan Tannenbaum May 23, 2024 ▶ 39:15 Dan Tennebaum - The Case for India at India Capital (EP.387)

Disclosure

Tannenbaum: India Capital previously bought airplane seats for physical share certificate boxes

“There were times that we had to buy an airplane ticket, one for a custodian, and a second airplane ticket in the seat next to them for a box full of share certificates, so they could be physically delivered to The buyer, so the trade would close smoothly.”

Dan Tannenbaum May 23, 2024 ▶ 49:31 Dan Tennebaum - The Case for India at India Capital (EP.387)

Assertion Supported

Tannenbaum: Indian index return drops from 17x to 0.3x excluding 25 days

“I think since 1990, I want to say the index is up 17 fold in dollar terms. If you take out the top 25 trading days, it's up .3 X in dollar terms”

Dan Tannenbaum May 23, 2024 ▶ 56:44 Dan Tennebaum - The Case for India at India Capital (EP.387)

Assertion Supported

Tannenbaum: 300M Indians are entering the lower middle class

“Some of it's in the consumption basket with income per capita now at 2500 dollars. You're going from a place where two-thirds of that was consumed by food and shelter In housing to a place where people really have disposable income. Three hundred million India…”

Dan Tannenbaum May 23, 2024 ▶ 1:17:24 Dan Tennebaum - The Case for India at India Capital (EP.387)

Assertion Supported

Tannenbaum: Indian companies have their lightest debt-to-equity ratio in 15 years

“And on the opposite side of the ledger, there are borrowers now with Indian companies have their lightest debt to equity in decade and half.”

Dan Tannenbaum May 23, 2024 ▶ 1:18:37 Dan Tennebaum - The Case for India at India Capital (EP.387)

Appearances (1)

Episode	Date	Speaking time
Dan Tennebaum - The Case for India at India Capital (EP.387)	May 23, 2024	1h 8m

Dan Tannenbaum

The record, in short

Their most notable supported claim

Their most notable contradicted claim

Expressed certainty vs assessment result

How they sound: not measured why? →

Appearances (1)

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