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Ari Paul

Co-Founder and CIO, BlockTower Capital · 1 appearance on the record.

computed by AI from the episodes · how this works → · full disclaimer →

investorfounderexecutive@AriDavidPaul ↗LinkedIn ↗blocktower.com ↗

Ari Paul co-founded BlockTower Capital in 2017, leading investment and trading strategies across cryptocurrency, DeFi, and digital asset markets. He previously worked as a derivatives market maker at Susquehanna International Group and as a portfolio and risk manager for the University of Chicago's endowment.

29statements → 14claims → 7claims resolved → 57%fully supported → 3.69/5average certainty → 2.21/5average debate potential → ≈4.5/5argument clarity, estimated → 6said about them ↓

4 supported 1 partly supported 2 contradicted 7 not checkable as stated how the 14 claims stand · each chip opens the sources

3 predictions · 11 assertions · 5 opinions · 7 insights · 3 disclosures · every statement was checked. The predictions and assertions are the 14 claims: statements the public record can support or contradict. 7 are resolved, and 7 name no date, number or outcome precise enough to check. Everything else (opinions, insights, what ifs, disclosures) can never be settled by the record, so it carries no assessment.

The record, in short

What the tape says about how Ari argues and how the claims held up. Everything they said, and everything said about them, is in the tabs below.

Their most notable supported claim

Assertion Supported
Paul: Endowments and Pensions Were Net Sellers in 2008 Crisis
“The reality was in the financial crisis, endowments and pensions were net sellers, not net buyers.”
Ari Paul Mar 18, 2021 ▶ 13:01 Crypto for Institutions 4: Ari Paul – Exploiting Inefficiencies in Crypto Trading (Capital Allocators, EP.183)

Their most notable contradicted claim

Prediction Didn’t hold up
Paul: The NFT Space Will Probably Grow 100x By 2024
“So I think over the next three years, we're going to see the NFT space grow probably a hundred X in size.”
Ari Paul Mar 18, 2021 ▶ 44:31 Crypto for Institutions 4: Ari Paul – Exploiting Inefficiencies in Crypto Trading (Capital Allocators, EP.183)

Expressed certainty vs assessment result

none yet certainty 1
none yet certainty 2
0% certainty 3
75% certainty 4
none yet certainty 5

weighted support: a fully supported claim counts one, a partly supported claim counts half. Each filled bar is clickable and opens exactly those claims; "none yet" means nothing said at that certainty level has resolved yet

How they sound: not measured why? →

We measure speaking style by listening to the audio itself, and a fair number needs at least 2,000 words from one person on tape we have measured. There is too little of Ari Paul on measured tape to publish a rate. This says nothing about how they speak.

Everything Ari Paul said on Capital Allocators that made the record, most notable first. Filter by type, assessment or year in the ledger →

Opinion
Paul: Copying Long Crypto Addresses for Million-Dollar Transfers Is Insane
“The idea that we're copying and pasting this arcane long string of alphanumerics to represent a million or ten million dollar transfer is insane. It's so error prone. It feels awkward. It's terrible. I had hoped four years ago, I thought that by this point we …”
Ari Paul Mar 18, 2021 ▶ 57:05 Crypto for Institutions 4: Ari Paul – Exploiting Inefficiencies in Crypto Trading (Capital Allocators, EP.183)
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Paul: In 2017 Only Four Crypto Funds Had Proper Hedge Fund Structures
“I was surveying the landscape on behalf of UChicago. I literally talked to every crypto fund I could find on UChicago's behalf, and there were like four that were investable at all. And by investable, I mean in the legal sense that actually had a hedge fund st…”
Ari Paul Mar 18, 2021 ▶ 21:01 Crypto for Institutions 4: Ari Paul – Exploiting Inefficiencies in Crypto Trading (Capital Allocators, EP.183)
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Paul: Two Sigma and Susquehanna Run Machine Learning Algorithms on Bitcoin
“Bitcoin, you do have machine learning algos from guys like Two Sigma and Susquehanna pointed at it.”
Ari Paul Mar 18, 2021 ▶ 30:54 Crypto for Institutions 4: Ari Paul – Exploiting Inefficiencies in Crypto Trading (Capital Allocators, EP.183)
Assertion Supported
Ari Paul: Uniswap generates 30 bps fees on over $1B daily volume
“Uniswap, you can actually value in a very equity-like way based on cash flows, because Uniswap actually collects a 30 basis point fee on all transactions, and it's currently doing more than a billion dollars a day in transactions.”
Ari Paul Mar 18, 2021 ▶ 34:03 Crypto for Institutions 4: Ari Paul – Exploiting Inefficiencies in Crypto Trading (Capital Allocators, EP.183)
Assertion Supported
Ari Paul: CME Bitcoin futures often trade at 20% annualized premium to spot
“Basis, you can capture CME futures, often trade at a 20% annualized premium to spot Bitcoin.”
Ari Paul Mar 18, 2021 ▶ 53:07 Crypto for Institutions 4: Ari Paul – Exploiting Inefficiencies in Crypto Trading (Capital Allocators, EP.183)

The other half of the tape: Ari Paul's own voice is left out of every number here. Other people bring the name up 6 times in 6 episodes on Capital Allocators. every mention, with the transcript →

Who brings them up most Ted Seides 6

Every mention by year

tap a year for its mentions
0033662022episodesmentions
0362022episodes it came up in
000.53162022episodesmentions per episode
2022 6 mentions in 6 episodes 1 per episode

Appearances (1)

EpisodeDateSpeaking time
Crypto for Institutions 4: Ari Paul – Exploiting Inefficiencies in Crypto Trading (Capita Mar 18, 2021 45m
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