Sep 16, 2019 · 41m · capital-allocators
Michael Schwimer - Sports Betting at JAMBOS (First Meeting, EP.08)
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gold bands on the timeline = statements, start to end. Hover to read, click to jump. CC turns on captions
In this episode of Capital Allocators, Michael Schwimer discusses how Big League Advance's elite quantitative sports analytics evolved into JAMBOS, a sports handicapping platform designed to disrupt the betting industry through verifiable transparency, financial guarantees, and predictive modeling.
How this conversation actually went
Every chapter scored 0–10 on four independent dynamics. Hover any point for the reasoning behind the score. Ted holds 31% of the talking time here. How this is scored →
Ted as informed peer 4.6 Guest teaching 6.1 Guest disagreement 2.2 Ted pushing back 1.7
speaking balance: gold is Ted, purple is the guest (3 minute bins)
Sharpest disagreement ▶ 22:59 Tout Industry Condemnation
Michael forcefully attacks mainstream handicapping touts, comparing their subscription tactics to fraudulent African prince email schemes.
Hardest push from Ted ▶ 21:41 Vegas Sample Size ChallengeTed pushes back on Michael's claim of being limited by sportsbooks, questioning whether the books could realistically detect an edge over such a tiny sample size.
Biggest teaching moment ▶ 16:08 Expected Points vs Actual PointsMichael educates Ted on the fundamental quantitative distinction between box-score results and expected point values derived from granular shot contestation data.
Ted holds their own ▶ 28:54 Market Impact ChallengeTed draws on financial market logic to point out that deploying substantial betting volume across subscribers must inevitably move the line and eliminate their proprietary edge.
the scores for every segment, with the reasoning behind each
| Chapter | Topic | Ted as informed peer | Guest teaching | Guest disagreement | Ted pushing back | Why |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Big League Advance Fund Growth and Player Analytics | 5 | 6 | 1 | 1 | Ted frames the fund updates around private equity mechanics and fee structure tiers. Michael explains the underlying success rates of non-top prospects and opponent adjustment modeling nuances. | |
| Assembling the Analytics Team and Pivoting to Betting | 4 | 6 | 2 | 1 | Michael recounts assembling an analytics brain trust to explore market inefficiencies across sports, ultimately landing on betting lines because professional sports teams proved too cheap to purchase outside consulting. | |
| Quantitative Modeling Methodologies Across Major Sports | 5 | 7 | 2 | 2 | Ted probes into how point spreads work and how historical game data projects into future performance. Michael details expected value calculations, pitch spin rates, and defensive matchup variables. | |
| Sportsbook Liquidity Limits and the Genesis of JAMBOS | 4 | 7 | 4 | 3 | Ted questions whether sportsbooks cutting Michael's limits was merely a fluke over a short sample. Michael forcefully details the illiquidity of Vegas books and launches a scathing critique of fraudulent tout services. | |
| Enforcing Transparency in the Sports Handicapping Industry | 4 | 6 | 2 | 2 | Michael breaks down JAMBOS' transparency mechanisms, timestamped market consensus lines, and their contrarian cash refund guarantee on losing packages. | |
| Market Impact and Longevity of Betting Edges | 6 | 6 | 2 | 3 | Ted challenges Michael on the paradox of retail betting scale moving market lines and destroying their edge. Michael concedes the edge has a finite window and outlines long-term pivots toward bookmaking, media, or team equity. | |
| The Analytics Divide in Professional Sports Franchises | 5 | 7 | 4 | 2 | Michael passionately lambasts NFL and European soccer management for ignoring quantitative data in favor of subjective eye tests, contrasting them with analytical front offices in baseball and basketball. | |
| The Future of Sports Entertainment and Bet Sizing | 5 | 6 | 2 | 1 | Ted brings up risk management frameworks like the Kelly Criterion. Michael outlines his vision for 24/7 sports betting broadcast integration and dedicated live-betting channels. | |
| JAMBOS Registration and Free Tier Access | 3 | 4 | 1 | 0 | Michael explains the registration onboarding for JAMBOS' free tier and weekly transparency picks before Ted closes the interview. |
Statements from this episode (24)
Big League Advance saw 38 of 77 Fund I players reach MLB
“Our first fund of 77 players, and keep in mind, remember, you have less than a 10% chance to make the major leagues if you're throwing a dart in the minor leagues, and we don't get first round picks. So the players that we go after, these non top 300 prospects…”
Big League Advance expects over 50 Fund I players to reach MLB
“We're expecting over 50 out of the 77 to get to me.”
Big League Advance raised a $130M Fund II at 3-and-30 fees
“Our first one was a two and 20 and our twenty six million, our hundred and thirty million dollar fund was a three and 30. And so we actually took us five weeks to raise that. We actually raised 182, but I had to return fifty two million because there's only so…”
Professional sports teams are extremely cheap about paying for outside analytics
“We quickly found out that teams were not interested in this. They have their own, they're very cheap. Teams are extremely cheap when it comes to this type of stuff. They're not cheap when it comes to paying players, but for outside resources, it's not that gre…”
JAMBOS achieved a 59% win rate against the spread in college basketball
“And we started doing it from then on through the college basketball season. We're up about 140 units. Now that might sound a little confusing, but basically a winning percentage of almost 59%.”
Schwimer: JAMBOS football and baseball models backtested better than college basketball
“Obviously we don't have any track record in those sports. This will be our first season for it, but the model back tests at a better rate than our college basketball.”
Schwimer: Baseball is the only sport where all data is publicly available
“Baseball is the only sport that all the data is publicly available. So it's just about how good your team is.”
Schwimer: Proprietary football data gives JAMBOS a much bigger edge than baseball
“In NFL and college football. We have data that nobody else has. And so that's why I think those two sports will have a far better advantage than baseball.”
JAMBOS spends over $5 million annually on data and payroll
“We're all in more than five million bucks here, probably on an annual basis.”
Vegas sportsbooks slashed Michael Schwimer's betting limits to $300 within 16 days
“16 days, I was shut out of all the books, because I didn't realize it's not a liquid market. The sports betting market is not liquid. At all. And so what that means is at the time I was cut down to 305 hundred per bet instead of 10,000 a bet.”
Sports betting subscription services are a uniquely awful and dishonest industry
“I'm not sure there's a more disgusting, awful industry to get into than the tout service and subscription services.”
Schwimer: JAMBOS grades picks using market consensus lines, not cherry-picked odds
“So when we release a pick and email instantly goes out to our subscribers and it's time stamped with the line that the pick is in. We also now use the market consensus line. Which is the average. So we're not cherry picking the very best line.”
BetCRIS and BookMaker effectively set the worldwide sports betting market
“So we're using the market consensus line, which is defined by this company, BetChris and Bookmaker. They kind of set the worldwide market for this stuff right now.”
JAMBOS offers a $10,000 payout if its football picks lose money
“If we're negative units, that means if you bet the same amount on every game, and you lose money, we will give you 10 thousand dollars back.”
JAMBOS will shut down its service if market adjustments eliminate its edge
“And if the closing lines are jumping many, many points to where we're losing, we are going to shut down the subscription service because we can no longer provide positive expected value plays to our subscribers.”
Sports betting demand is ten times larger than what sportsbooks accept
“There's way more money to the tune of Probably close to 10 X of money that wants to be bet than is being willing to be taken. Think about that. There's more money that wants to be bet than is willing to be taken because casinos don't want to take winning bette…”
Pro sports team owners offered JAMBOS equity to run their analytics
“We've been contacted by several team owners in major sports wanting to give us equity in teams at this point, which is a huge avenue for us to do and be able to take over some of these teams and data analytic departments and really use it.”
JAMBOS expects its sports betting edge to disappear within two years
“We're only going to have this advantage for a year or two, I think. There's only a very short number of time where subscribers can take advantage of this.”
Data usage by NFL and European soccer teams is embarrassingly poor
“I mean, football and European soccer, it's embarrassing, the use of data to make decisions.”
The Rockets, Athletics, and Rays lead sports analytics decision-making
“The Houston Rockets, most certainly. In baseball, the A's do a good job. The Rays, the Tampa Bay Rays do just a fantastic, I mean, every trade they make, we're like, yep, that fits our model.”
JAMBOS is in advanced talks to buy a European soccer team
“We're really close to a European soccer team. Right now. And then there's been faint interest from a football. We're not far down the line there yet, but it's possible we could announce something here in four to six months in terms of ownership of the team.”