The Wisdom Wall
12 quotable lessons, heuristics and mental models. Every one is playable at the moment it was said. No fortune cookies allowed.
“there is a whole sort of universe that I'd put in the category of mark to make believe. And the incentive system is such that you want that mark to make believe to go on as long as possible, because if you are The equity owner, you don't want to mark your market down because by the way, then you can't raise new money.…”
“I actually think that was a historical aberration. That was not the way it used to be. If you look at the 19 twenties, it was not like that. You look at the 19 thirties, it wasn't like that. The leave it to be for American dream that I think this individual is referring to began post-World War II in a universe in which…”
“every financial crisis is really only a function of one thing. It's too much debt. It's too much credit leverage in the system.”
“What I find so strange, what I find so strange is the people who are, who Say they're trying to democratize finance seem to do such a lousy job of actually trying to protect the people that they say they're democratizing it for.”
“the private credit business really can't fall apart before, frankly, the private equity industry falls apart. Meaning, if you think about it, who has taken on the biggest loans from private, from the private credit space? It's oftentimes the private equity players, or some of these tech players, or some of these, so…”
“Well, if you decide the software company is no longer a thing and may not have this recurring revenue, all of a sudden its value has to come down, and all of a sudden, therefore, they would have to lose all their money, and then if for the credit guys who loan the money, they would also therefore then lose money too.”
“The one other thing about data centers, which is a little bit more nerve-wracking, is it's not like putting, you know, people compare it to putting fiber in the ground or building the railroads. You put the tracks down. Because once you build a data center, you probably are going to still want to upgrade those chips…”
“one of the reasons why people are moving to prediction markets and moving to what I would describe as the sort of a lottery ticket approach to life. It's a little bit YOLO. Um, is a function of the inequality that we have in this country.”
“The truth is, depending on how you run a country and a social safety net and a system, if you can't afford the loss, then the loss gets fully socialized.”
“when you have a crash, you can't move into a period of austerity. You actually have to throw money at the problem as politically unpopular as the bailouts are. The Federal Reserve needs to throw money in.”
“AI can't walk into the locker room and start to interview the athlete or figure out what the coach did two days earlier and try to get somebody to tell them something off the record or behind the scenes. And that'll become a sort of higher order value proposition.”
“I mean, it would be very hard For a retail base of investors to move the stock of an Apple or a Walmart or an Amazon in this kind of way.”