supercuts / didnt-hold-up
Didn’t hold up
The most confident predictions the public record went against, highest certainty first. · 20 clips, 3 minutes, hands free.
0:00 / 0:07exact quote · 7.1s
1/20Vogt: Cruise will sustain 10X annual fleet growth for the foreseeable future
Kyle Vogt · 2023Didn’t hold upfull source →
1Vogt: Cruise will sustain 10X annual fleet growth for the foreseeable futureKyle Vogt · 7sDidn’t hold up
2Newton predicts Grammarly will be dead by the end of 2025Casey Newton · 3sDidn’t hold up
3Petersen: U.S. trade tariffs will decrease American manufacturingRyan Petersen · 4sDidn’t hold up
4Enjeti predicts Republicans will win exactly 53 Senate seats in 2022Saagar Enjeti · 6sDidn’t hold up
5Petersen predicts short-term goods recession driven by higher consumer pricesRyan Petersen · 8sDidn’t hold up
6Ives: Apple's China sales will grow 15% to 20% next yearDan Ives · 23sDidn’t hold up
7Ives: Trump victory will initially hurt AI trade, Apple, and TeslaDan Ives · 12sDidn’t hold up
8McDermott: ServiceNow customers will build 1 billion apps within two yearsBill McDermott · 9sDidn’t hold up
9Beck: New chip generations demand 10x more power every ten monthsChristophe Beck · 19sDidn’t hold up
10Kantrowitz: ChatGPT On Track for One Billion Users by Late MarchAlex Kantrowitz · 3sDidn’t hold up
11Link: Amazon will generate $48B in free cash flow in 2024Stephanie Link · 5sDidn’t hold up
12Kantrowitz: ChatGPT will reach one billion users by April 2026Alex Kantrowitz · 13sDidn’t hold up
13Vogt: Fully autonomous vehicles will dominate new car sales within 2-3 yearsKyle Vogt · 24sDidn’t hold up
14Doshi: Search engine traffic will drop over 25% before 2026Suhail Doshi · 6sDidn’t hold up
15Kantrowitz: Tim Cook will announce departure on Apple Q1 earnings callAlex Kantrowitz · 7sDidn’t hold up
16Roy: Proposed $14B TikTok US buyout will not go throughRanjan Roy · 8sDidn’t hold up
17Petersen: Closing De Minimis Exemption Will Crash Air Freight PricesRyan Petersen · 3sDidn’t hold up
18Broderick predicts Bluesky will reach 100 million users by early 2026Ryan Broderick · 21sDidn’t hold up
19Ives: NVIDIA will reach $4 trillion market cap in 3-6 monthsDan Ives · 10sDidn’t hold up
20The public will see a GPT-5 level AI model by year-endDwarkesh Patel · 10sDidn’t hold up