The Ledger
Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.
why aren't all 9 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 0 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Scaringe: Rivian has sufficient capital to reach positive free cash flow
“That's not only enough capital to launch R two and normal, but it's enough capital to launch our second R two plant in Georgia and take us through positive free cashflow.”
Albergati: Meta's Future AI Models Will Be Closed or Backend-Only
“I think at this point, the new models are either going to just be part of their products, like almost backend technology, or they'll be, you know, they'll be closed models, just like open AI.”
Kantrowitz: Meta's Open Source AI Strategy Is Definitely Done
“I think they're not going to, their open source strategy is definitely done.”
Petersen: 70% chance trade deals get negotiated, China tariffs probably stick
“I give it like a 70% confidence level that they negotiate some deals. I think the China tariffs probably stick.”
Kantrowitz: Apple and Google will ban TikTok before Trump instantly restores it
“This is my hottest of all takes, which is That the app stores are forced to ban TikTok on January, and then Trump day one says, put it back. So there, it's gone for like a half hour.”
Kantrowitz predicts dozens of Neuralink patients will receive implants in 2025
“I think 20, 25 is going to be the year of the brain computer interface. I think we could end up seeing dozens of Neuralink patients in 20, 25.”
Link: Trump election victory will trigger selloffs in Apple and semis
“I think the initial knee-jerk reaction will be sell Apple, sell semiconductors and in spades, because they've all done so well over the last several years even with the President Biden's tariffs, because we know that he kept a lot of tariffs on, but, you know,…”
Patel: GPT-5 will simultaneously scale pre-training and post-training reasoning
“And so now GPT-Five, as Sam calls it, is, is gonna be a model that has huge pre-training scale, right? Like GPT-Five, but also huge post-training scale, Like O-one and O-three and continuing to scale that up, right? This would be the first time we see a model …”