The Ledger

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why aren't all 1 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 0 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable

Prediction Not checkable as stated
Saunders gives 10% probability of human-level remote AI within three years
“And I'm, you know, not as convinced about Leopold that this is necessarily going to come soon, but I think, you know, there's maybe like a 10% probability that this happens within three years.”
William Saunders Jul 3, 2024 ▶ 50:49 What The Ex-OpenAI Safety Employees Are Worried About
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