The Ledger
Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.
why aren't all 12 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 0 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Lee: The AI Market Bubble Will Eventually Burst
“The bubble bursts in AI. And I think that's going to happen for sure.”
Lee: AI Sectors Will Peak Simultaneously One-Third Into the Cycle
“Everything's gonna peak at the same time, probably one third into the cycle, but then in that period of consolidation and shakeout, then one or two industries truly pull away and capture the value again.”
Lee: Tether Is the World's Third Most Profitable Financial Institution
“And so Tether, from a net income basis, makes more money than most financial institutions. I think it's, would be the third most profitable financial institution in the world.”
Tom Lee: AI Innovation Is Only Happening in the US and China
“Really, there are, there's only two places where AI innovation's taking place, is the United States and China.”
Lee: Banks cannot internally transfer funds due to OFAC and FinCEN
“In fact, if you're a global bank, so take Barclays or JP Morgan, and you have money in, let's say Japan, and you want to move it to the US, you have to use an external intermediary to move the money. Banks can't internally transfer the money because it violate…”
Lee: Only China, US, Japan, and Germany will build humanoid robots
“Yeah, it's gonna only be three, maybe four countries. It's China, USA, Japan, and Germany.”
Lee: Western robots will see wider adoption over safety concerns
“I would say over time there is going to be concern about the ethical safety of a robot, and that's why I think a Western developed robot will be more widely adopted than a non-US one.”
Tom Lee: Much of Tech CapEx Is Maintenance, Not AI
“Not a hundred percent of tech spend is AI. A lot of it is maintenance CapEx and expansion CapEx and, you know, the catch up for spending that's been deferred because of COVID, et cetera.”
Lee: S&P 500 earnings grew despite major post-2020 macroeconomic shocks
“Four of four of those events should have caused a lot of companies to fail or earnings to decline. S&P earnings grew that entire period.”
Lee: Apple may lag early AI before taking market lead
“Apple might Do what they did in, oh, two and seven. They weren't cutting edge and making the first mobile phone, but they, in 2007, after the bubble burst, introduced the iPhone, and so, maybe they'll wait for AI valuations to come down, or the, you know, the …”