The Ledger

Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.

clear all ✕

why aren't all 7 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 0 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable

Prediction Didn’t hold up
Doshi: Search engine traffic will drop over 25% before 2026
“I mean, I think there's a very high probability it is greater than that number in a shorter span of time.”
Suhail Doshi Mar 20, 2024 ▶ 44:38 Predicting AI’s Next Advances — With Suhail Doshi
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Doshi: Powerful multimodal models will probably yield Westworld-style humanoid robots
“So I think that if the models get more powerful, We're probably going to see, we're probably going to see some kind of Westworld version of the world. We're going to go way beyond a chatbot.”
Suhail Doshi Mar 20, 2024 ▶ 7:35 Predicting AI’s Next Advances — With Suhail Doshi
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Doshi: Graphic Designers Won't Go Extinct From AI but Will Retool
“So did all the people that you know, that were people that drew the two D cartoons, they lose their jobs. And, you know, that was the end of the end of an era. Definitely not people retooled the stories that came from them were still really material to their c…”
Suhail Doshi Mar 20, 2024 ▶ 14:54 Predicting AI’s Next Advances — With Suhail Doshi
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Doshi: Prompting AI image models by artist name will disappear this year
“I think that this thing is going to go away in the next year, this year.”
Suhail Doshi Mar 20, 2024 ▶ 30:44 Predicting AI’s Next Advances — With Suhail Doshi
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Doshi: In a year, OpenAI's Sora will look 'not even close'
“My feeling is my bet to people, you know, sort of listening is that in a year we will think, you know, we'll think something like Sora was not even close.”
Suhail Doshi Mar 20, 2024 ▶ 35:18 Predicting AI’s Next Advances — With Suhail Doshi
Prediction Didn’t hold up
Doshi: GPT-5 is probably slated for release in 2024
“GPT five is probably slated imminently this year.”
Suhail Doshi Mar 20, 2024 ▶ 45:11 Predicting AI’s Next Advances — With Suhail Doshi
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Doshi: AI Model Quality Is the Lowest It Will Ever Be
“Quality is the lowest it's ever going to be starting today.”
Suhail Doshi Mar 20, 2024 ▶ 26:11 Predicting AI’s Next Advances — With Suhail Doshi
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