The Ledger
Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.
why aren't all 26 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 0 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Doshi: Search engine traffic will drop over 25% before 2026
“I mean, I think there's a very high probability it is greater than that number in a shorter span of time.”
Doshi: Powerful multimodal models will probably yield Westworld-style humanoid robots
“So I think that if the models get more powerful, We're probably going to see, we're probably going to see some kind of Westworld version of the world. We're going to go way beyond a chatbot.”
Suhail Doshi: Video AI models mimic training data rather than understanding real physics
“What's really doing is it's representing
The physics it understands in the videos it's being trained on, which could be incorrect physics. It's really what it understands what it's being trained on is kind of my main, the main thrust of my point. And that to a…”
Doshi: AI companies would leave NVIDIA if cheaper compute alternatives existed
“It's not CUDA that's keeping, I think, keeping a lot of us. It's actually that there is nothing really dramatically better than NVIDIA's GPUs. And so if there's nothing dramatically better than, I mean, the reality is the cost for training and inference are so…”
Doshi: AWS Quoted 5x Market Price for GPUs in 2023
“I mean, we look, we were looking for compute last year and AWS wanted to charge us five times more for the same GPU than 10 different providers all around them.”
Doshi: Image AI is probably a couple years behind a GPT-4 moment
“Images is interesting because it's probably a couple years behind a GPT-IV true moment, right?”
Doshi: Robotics research hit a ceiling around 2020 and hasn't recovered
“Broadly robotics kind of asymptoted and hit a ceiling. About like three or four years ago, and the research still isn't like kind of on a trajectory. That's amazing.”
Doshi: Articulating explanations does not prove AI is genuinely reasoning
“Just because something is able to articulate its reason for doing, for getting to an answer, doesn't mean that it is necessarily reasoning.”
Doshi: The Predominant Use Case for Language Models Continues to Be Homework
“There are a lot of things posted on Twitter about how people are using language models, but the predominant use case continues to be homework.”
Doshi: Graphic Designers Won't Go Extinct From AI but Will Retool
“So did all the people that you know, that were people that drew the two D cartoons, they lose their jobs. And, you know, that was the end of the end of an era. Definitely not people retooled the stories that came from them were still really material to their c…”
Doshi: Computer vision lacks a single unified model equivalent to LLMs
“This is missing in vision, but definitely kind of exists in language and language. We can solve hundreds or thousands of different tasks. But in graphics, but in vision, it's all separated. It's kind of like where language was back three or four years ago wher…”
Doshi: Prompting AI image models by artist name will disappear this year
“I think that this thing is going to go away in the next year, this year.”
Doshi: In a year, OpenAI's Sora will look 'not even close'
“My feeling is my bet to people, you know, sort of listening is that in a year we will think, you know, we'll think something like Sora was not even close.”
Doshi: Debate over whether AI truly understands physics is practically irrelevant
“I take the argument that it doesn't, I just like, I don't think it matters. Like at the end of the day, we are making these models could do it or could not, but either way, what matters is what utility it brings to humanity.”
Doshi: Google's bureaucracy is ill-suited for AI's rapid velocity
“And they have to contend with a significant complex bureaucracy that is not really well attuned for the velocity that AI is running at right now.”
Doshi: GPT-5 is probably slated for release in 2024
“GPT five is probably slated imminently this year.”
Doshi: AI advancement is outpacing Moore's Law by a lot
“We're still so at the beginning, the early phases of this thing that it is moving faster than Moore's law. By a lot.”
Doshi: Sam Altman only cares about AGI, treating video as stepping stones
“I think that Sam is genuinely focused on AGI and attaining that. And I think he does not care about Graphics and, you know, video necessarily. I think he, those are stepping stones and that helps research you know, get to the next point, but I think he is very…”
Doshi: Institutional media incentives drive bad tech coverage, not individual reporters
“It's not that we think they're bad. It's that we think that their institutions are bad and their institutions create incentives that create bad situations.”
Doshi: True AI reasoning can only be tested out-of-distribution
“One way that you could maybe litmus test reasoning is if you gave the model something truly out of distribution, right? Like an example of something that's truly out of distribution that humans face was COVID, a pandemic that it had not yet seen before. And th…”
Doshi: Meta has one of the world's best graphics teams
“I think one thing that Meta is doing, regardless of where VR is headed or AR is headed, is they have one of the most world-class teams for graphics, and they have to because of all the stuff that they're doing in VR.”
Doshi: AI Image Models Homogenize Styles by Overfitting to Average Human Preference
“I think that the models are probably too curated and maybe overfit to be based on human preference. And human preference isn't your human preference. It's your preference. I mean, it's some kind of average of human preference.”
Doshi: NVIDIA H100 is 1.9x faster but 2x costlier
“One of the problems with NVIDIA was that they released their H 100, but they didn't really reduce its cost. You know, it is, it's two is, you know, 1.9 X faster, but two X costlier.”
Doshi: Apple Is Well Positioned to Copy Google's Best AI Experiments
“And I think Apple is super well positioned to just like let Google do all those experiments and then just pluck the ones that are the best ones and use its massive install base and distribution power to deliver an amazing experience, not a rushed rushed one.”
Doshi: Satya Nadella is brilliantly bringing all AI models onto Azure
“If you observe very carefully, he is actually partnering with everybody. He is bringing all the models into Azure, right? And he's doing it very methodically, and I think that he is really setting up Azure to be to leap and be a lot more competitive.”