The Ledger
Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.
why aren't all 12 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 2 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Link: Trump election victory will trigger selloffs in Apple and semis
“I think the initial knee-jerk reaction will be sell Apple, sell semiconductors and in spades, because they've all done so well over the last several years even with the President Biden's tariffs, because we know that he kept a lot of tariffs on, but, you know,…”
Link: Amazon will deliver ~20% 5-year CAGR, beating Meta and Google
“And I think you're going to see a CAGR of about 20% for the next five years at this company versus Meta at 13% and versus Google at 12.8%.”
Link: iPhone 17 and 18 will be stronger upgrade cycles than 16
“I think that maybe 17 and 18, I feel really good about those phones. I'm not so sure that 16 is going to be the blow away, but the expectations are still kind of muted.”
Link: AWS and advertising will reach 31% of Amazon's revenue by 2030
“AWS Growing 19, 20% with 33% margins. You have advertising growing up low double digits with 50% margins, and collectively those two businesses are, right now, they are about 24% of total revenue. That's gonna get to 31% by the end of this decade”
Link: AI will be an absolute home run for Apple's app business
“Now, long-term services, I do think is going to be a home run. I think AI is going to be an absolute home run for the apps business.”
Link: The top five cybersecurity vendors will consolidate and grow larger
“And so I think you're going to see massive consolidation of like the big five get even bigger and bigger over time because they need to offer more services and products to their customers that do talk to each other.”
Link: $4 trillion will be spent on energy grid by 2050
“We are going to spend four trillion dollars between now and 20 50 on the whole energy part of the cycle.”
Link: Amazon will generate $48B in free cash flow in 2024
“They are gonna generate free cash flow this year of forty eight billion dollars, so let's just put that to bed right there.”
Link: Apple's forward P/E multiple expanded from 26x to 35x
“I think the stock got as much as low as 26 times forward estimates. And today we're at 35 times forward estimates.”
Link: Apple targets manufacturing one in four iPhones in India
“Tim Cook makes one iPhone for every seven in India, and his goal is to get from one iPhone to every four in India”