The Ledger
Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.
why aren't all 3 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 0 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Brin: Artificial General Intelligence will arrive before 2030
“2030. Boy, you really kind of, ah, put it on that fine line. I'm gonna say before.”
Brin: Algorithmic advances will probably outpace compute advances in AI
“If I had to guess, I would say the algorithmic advances are probably going to be Even more significant than the computational advances, but both of them are coming up now, so we're kind of getting the benefits of both.”
Brin: Multiple entities will reach AGI quickly following the first breakthrough
“I guess I would suppose that one company or country or entity will reach AGI first. Now it is a little bit of a, you know, kind of a spectrum. It's not like a completely precise thing, so it's conceivable that there will be more than one roughly in that range …”