The Ledger

Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.

clear all ✕

why aren't all 4 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 1 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable

Prediction Not checkable as stated
Highly leveraged AI infrastructure companies face severe financial fallout without monetization
“And I think not every company probably has that. Level of game plan. And I don't think that maybe not every company is probably doing the same level of thoughtfulness of that. And, you know, at some point, you know, different companies will probably be hit by …”
Scott Guthrie Oct 1, 2025 ▶ 26:21 Microsoft's Cloud & AI Head on the AI Buildout's Risks and ROI — With Scott Guthrie
Prediction Open · timeframe Oct 2027
Guthrie: AI infrastructure will remain supply-constrained for the next two years
“With AI, we're still more supply constrained than we are demand constrained. And I think I, you know, I expect that to continue over the next couple of years as the technology continues to evolve and as people start to integrate AI into more and more workflows…”
Scott Guthrie Oct 1, 2025 ▶ 2:46 Microsoft's Cloud & AI Head on the AI Buildout's Risks and ROI — With Scott Guthrie
Prediction Held up
AI datacenters will undergo a massive shift to liquid cooling by 2027
“Well, I think one of the biggest changes that's happening right now from a data center perspective, and you're seeing this with the latest NVIDIA GPUs, and I think you're going to see this in a more profound way over the next two years is the shift from air-co…”
Scott Guthrie Oct 1, 2025 ▶ 31:12 Microsoft's Cloud & AI Head on the AI Buildout's Risks and ROI — With Scott Guthrie
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Tokens per watt per dollar will dictate AI cloud infrastructure dominance
“The number of tokens you can get per watt per dollar is going to be the game over the next couple years and maximizing the ability of our cloud to deliver the best Volume of tokens for every watt of power, for every dollar that's spent, where the dollar is spe…”
Scott Guthrie Oct 1, 2025 ▶ 44:43 Microsoft's Cloud & AI Head on the AI Buildout's Risks and ROI — With Scott Guthrie
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