The Ledger
Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.
why aren't all 15 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 1 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Altman: ChatGPT's Market Lead Will Increase Over Time
“ChatGPT is still by far the dominant chatbot in the market, and I expect that lead to increase, not decrease over time.”
Altman: AI will remember every detail of a user's life
“AI is definitely gonna be able to do that. And we actually talk a lot about this. Like right now, memory is still very crude, very early. We're in like the, you know, the GPT-II era of memory, but what it's gonna be like when it really does remember every deta…”
Altman: A single company's AI will output more tokens than all humanity
“We're gonna have these Models at a company be outputting more tokens per day than all of humanity put together. And then 10 times that, and then a hundred times that.”
Altman: AI-augmented humans will achieve major scientific breakthroughs within five years
“What it looks like from here to five years to now, this journey to big discoveries, I suspect it just like the normal hill climb of AI. It just gets like a little bit better every quarter. And then all of a sudden we're like, whoa, humans augmented by these mo…”
Altman thinks AI superintelligence is "a long way off"
“I think something like that is like an interesting framework for super intelligence. I think it's like a long way off, but I would love to have like a cleaner definition this time around.”
Approaching superintelligence makes everyone involved more stressed and anxious
“I think everybody involved in this, as we get closer and closer to superintelligence Everybody involved gets more stressed and more anxious, and we realize the stakes are higher and higher, and I think that will explode.”
AI models will have persuasive ability to affect 2024 elections
“One of those, I mean, there'll be many that we'll have to mitigate, but one of those is gonna be around the persuasive ability of these models, and the ability for them to affect elections next year.”
AI will be net good for media as trusted journalists gain value
“I think they're gonna rely and care more about their relationship with someone in the media more and more, and care more about high quality information in a world of, like, massive amounts of generated content. So I think it should be net good, but it will be …”
AI will eventually give everyone ten thousand collaborating experts
“But next they have, like, the world's best chief of staff. And then after that, every person has, like, a company of 20 or 50 experts that can work super well together. And then after that, everybody has a company of 10,000 experts in every field that can work…”
Altman: OpenAI will fail to meet enterprise token demand in 2026
“And we are going to again fail in 2026 to meet demand.”
AI will make future graduates smarter than today's best students
“I think the kids that start kindergarten today, by the time they graduate, 12th grade, will be smarter and better prepared than the best kids of today.”
The world will be in an unbelievably better place by 2030
“24 will see way more of it, and by the time, like, the end of this decade rolls around I think the world is gonna be in a unbelievably better place.”
Altman: Everyone will end up managing multiple AI systems
“It's clear to see how everyone's gonna be managing, like, a lot of AIs doing different stuff.”
Altman: Computing will shift to proactive AI ill-suited to current devices
“I think there will be a shift over time to the way people use computers, where they go from a sort of
Dumb, reactive thing to a very smart, proactive thing that is understanding your whole life, your context, everything going on around you, very aware of
The p…”
Altman: Dedicated AI platforms will exist alongside traditional web clouds
“My guess is that people will continue to have their Call it web cloud. And then I think there will be this other thing where like a company will be like, I need an AI platform for everything that I want to do internally that service I want to offer, whatever. …”