The Ledger
Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.
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Petersen: U.S. trade tariffs will decrease American manufacturing
“What we've seen over the last few weeks is it's gonna decrease American manufacturing.”
Petersen: Shein and Temu will survive end of de minimis exemption
“Well, they're very big global companies first off, so yes. And they're already finding ways, you know, they have to pay duties, but they're just back to being a level playing field, so I think they're, you're gonna see them, one, produce in other countries, an…”
Petersen: Warehouse robots most likely will not be humanoid
“Humanoid actually doesn't solve a lot of problems because you don't get more density out of your warehouse. You want real estate density. You want to be able to stack the goods all the way to the ceiling, jam them in. So it's more, the form factor is not going…”
Petersen: Tech industry will be prime target for foreign tariff retaliation
“And the tech industry will be the natural place to target. It's our best industry, our best companies. And if you wanted to retaliate against America, that would be the place to hit.”
Petersen: Cabinet secretary indicated administration will negotiate deals on tariffs
“I believe there will be deals cut. I don't know if in time to pause the tariffs altogether, but and I believe that because a cabinet secretary told me that there would be a pause, a negotiation, I should say, not a pause, but he said two weeks ago that this wa…”
Petersen: 70% chance trade deals get negotiated, China tariffs probably stick
“I give it like a 70% confidence level that they negotiate some deals. I think the China tariffs probably stick.”
Petersen: April 17 fees on Chinese-made ships will disrupt ocean freight
“We have on April 17th, no one's talking about it right now, but they're in 10 days, they're going to impose fees on ships made in China when they make a port call in the US. It's going to totally rearrange the shipping networks and make ocean freight incredibl…”
Petersen: Closing De Minimis Exemption Will Crash Air Freight Prices
“It's going to crash the price of air freight would be my prediction.”
Petersen: Asian e-commerce giants will absorb duties if de minimis ends
“My suspicion from having analyzed a few of these and working with them is that the companies will keep, keep going and just have to pay the duties.”
Petersen predicts short-term goods recession driven by higher consumer prices
“Short term is going to be a lot, a goods recession for sure. I mean, there'll be less goods sold because prices will be higher.”
Petersen: Flexport could automate 20% of human freight tasks per year
“We have members of our team who are not hype, They're not subject to hype. Very, you know, realistic living and reality types of engineering leaders who are really believe that we're on the verge of some breakthroughs within our own business of automating, lik…”
Petersen: Brands will mostly absorb 30% China tariffs without big price hikes
“So those things could be very disruptive and lead to inflation, but current level, 30%, it feels like brands will mostly absorb that and not pass it. They'll pass it through a little bit, but it's, remember, this is 30% on the cost.”