why aren't all 8 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public
record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 1 checkable
ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't;
assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card:
▮▮▮▮▮ certainty ·
▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Lebaredian: Making AI more efficient will increase overall compute demand
“I think intelligence is something that is probably the most endless of all, all computing problems. If we can throw more compute at the problem, we can make more intelligence and do it better and better. So making, making AI more efficient, Will just increase …”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Lebaredian: AI Physics Understanding Will Unlock Most Robotics Applications in a Few Years
“At this point, I believe in a few years, we're going to get to a level of a physics understanding with our AIs that are, that's going to unlock, you know, the majority of the applications we need to apply them in, in robotics.”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
NVIDIA VP: Film studios will adopt AI world models for faster, cheaper VFX
“What we're building with AI, with generative AI, and particularly with world foundation models, that once we get to the point where they really understand, ah, the depth of the physics that they need to produce something like Planet of the Apes, once we have t…”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Lebaredian: Multimodal world models will serve as brains for physical robots
“And so what we'll end up with is a world foundation model that was trained on many different modes of data, essentially different sense, senses. It can see, it can hear, It can touch and feel and do, do many of the things we can do, or many things other animal…”
Prediction Open · timeframe Feb 2030
Lebaredian: Humanoid robots will take off first in industrial sectors
“We believe that the first place we're going to see general purpose robots like the humanoid robots really take off is in the industrial sector because of two things.
One, the demand is great there because we have the shortage of workers.
and also because
…”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Lebaredian: Homes will be the last place humanoid robots appear
“I think the last place we're going to start seeing humanoids show up is in our homes.”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Lebaredian: Physical AI models only have 5% to 10% of needed understanding
“That all being said, I think we're going to rapidly get better and better. So, so the models today have an amazing amount of knowledge about the physical world, but they're maybe at like five, 10% of what they should understand.”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Lebaredian: Domestic humanoid robots will adopt in Japan before Germany
“They'll probably show up in a kitchen in somebody's home in Japan before they show up in a kitchen in somebody's home in, in Munich, Germany.”