why aren't all 16 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public
record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 0 checkable
ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't;
assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card:
▮▮▮▮▮ certainty ·
▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Hoffman: OpenAI meant open API access, not open source models
“In terms of being open, there's lots of different parameters of open, and open AI has been, you know, working to have, like, open, you know, kind of you know, with, obviously, identity and registration for safety, but open AI, API access. It wasn't called open…”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Hoffman: Elon Musk approved OpenAI's closed-model strategy as co-CEO
“Elon was part of that decision for you know, as kind of co-CEO in terms of making that decision. And so that's how open AI has always operated.”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Hoffman: Current AI investments will seem small in retrospect
“When you think about what AI is going to bring to the transformation of human life and human work, the investments will, I think, seem small. In retrospect”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Hoffman: Some foundation model efforts will fail, especially late entrants
“Well, I do think that there will be efforts at foundational models that won't work. And especially I think late entrance like late entrance have a harder, you know, catch up routine and a lot of kind of expense to go to it”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Hoffman: China will produce multiple strong contenders in global AI
“China and multiple companies within it, because, you know, I haven't evaluated yet. Minimax, which also just came out recently, but will have a number of very strong contenders for this in the world technology landscape.”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Hoffman: Voice will very soon become the main computing interface
“A hundred percent. One of the party tricks I do is I bring out my phone and put ChatGPT on audio mode to show people. Because part of when we learn to use phones or PCs, we've learned, you know, with GUIs and everything else, we've made it softer, but there's …”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Hoffman: OpenAI Offers Many Products Below Cost to Maximize Adoption
“And OpenAI is actually, you know spending a bunch of money making it free or subsidized to get the widest possible exposure, engagement in the, and learning about these products and being able to use them. You know, a lot of OpenAI products are offered at belo…”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Hoffman: AI will transform jobs and replace workers who do not use it
“A classic one with AI is say, well, this is going to change a lot of jobs. And it will, cause it's a kind of a new tool set, like a new tool set. Like if you say, Hey, I'm a professional today and I don't use smartphones and I don't use computers. It's like, n…”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Hoffman: Everything with a compute unit will become smarter with AI
“When every single thing that has a compute unit in it, and it's not just phones and computers, which will be huge, but you know, speakers and lights and Thermostats and cars and, you know, planes, trains, and automobiles. Everything is going to get smarter.”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Hoffman: History Will View Microsoft-OpenAI as an Epic Partnership
“I think when the history books are written. I think this will be one of the kind of epic, ah, partnerships that, you know, kind of, ah, plays out in the, into the field”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Hoffman: Nvidia Blackwell Delays Would Slow AI Development But Not Stop It
“If they can't get their year olds up and produce it, that will be a, you know, concerning thing for NVIDIA and will slow down some of, you know, kind of AI's development because the faster chips in a dense environment is actually, in fact, instrumental and hel…”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Hoffman: 6-12 Month Delays Are Normal for Nvidia and Chipmakers
“It's actually not atypical. For either NVIDIA or chip manufacturers to sometimes be, you know to have six to 12 month error bars in, in the stuff they're doing”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Hoffman: Everyone will have an AI coding assistant on PC and phone
“With the AI revolution is all of us will have a coding co-pilot and assistant on our PC, on our phone, that will help us do these things, and so when we think about, like, you know, how do we accomplish some kind of professional task, how we do information gat…”
Assertion Contradicted
Hoffman: Musk agreed with Sam Altman not to target OpenAI politically
“Sam has tweeted that you know, he doesn't anticipate Elon, you know, engaging in that kind of behavior, and Elon has retweeted those sections saying, yep, that's totally right.”
Assertion Supported
Hoffman: DST Won Big on Facebook by Offering $10B Post With No Caveats
“In Valley history DST led around in Facebook when the traditional funds were all like, oh, we'll only do a three to five billion pre, you know, with lots of caveats and everything else. And DST came in and said, we'll do a ten billion post and no caveats. And …”
Assertion Supported
Hoffman: OpenAI built GPT-4 on Nvidia A100 GPUs
“I mean, GBD-IV was built on A-Hundreds.”