The Ledger
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Hoffman: OpenAI meant open API access, not open source models
“In terms of being open, there's lots of different parameters of open, and open AI has been, you know, working to have, like, open, you know, kind of you know, with, obviously, identity and registration for safety, but open AI, API access. It wasn't called open…”
Hoffman: Elon Musk approved OpenAI's closed-model strategy as co-CEO
“Elon was part of that decision for you know, as kind of co-CEO in terms of making that decision. And so that's how open AI has always operated.”
Hoffman: FTC Chair Lina Khan's tech M&A crackdown concentrates Big Tech power
“You know, she misunderstands, like, kind of the role of how to stop the aggregation of power in large tech companies, because she says, well, if she stops large tech companies from buying small startups, what that means is venture capitalists, like myself, and…”
Hoffman: Current AI investments will seem small in retrospect
“When you think about what AI is going to bring to the transformation of human life and human work, the investments will, I think, seem small. In retrospect”
Hoffman: Silicon Valley dominates by ignoring traditional DCF analysis
“This is actually one of the reasons why Silicon Valley tends to create so many of the technology companies that dominate the globe, because if you take an overly kind of classic DCF analysis, business school prof analysis, et cetera, which many, much of the wo…”
Hoffman: Late-stage AI rounds do not require 10x returns to succeed
“The investment that investors made last year is kind of more of a growth venture round relative to, it doesn't necessarily require a 10 X. I mean, you know, we have trillion dollar companies now, so, you know, trillion dollar companies are definitely within fe…”
Hoffman: Some foundation model efforts will fail, especially late entrants
“Well, I do think that there will be efforts at foundational models that won't work. And especially I think late entrance like late entrance have a harder, you know, catch up routine and a lot of kind of expense to go to it”
Hoffman: China will produce multiple strong contenders in global AI
“China and multiple companies within it, because, you know, I haven't evaluated yet. Minimax, which also just came out recently, but will have a number of very strong contenders for this in the world technology landscape.”
Hoffman: US export controls are right response to Chinese mercantilism
“And I do think that the, it's the right thing for the U S to be doing, given that China is generally taking a kind of a mercantilist competitive position. And I think that's something that the U S and other you know, kind of countries Europe and everything els…”
Hoffman: Independent startups cannot economically build frontier consumer AI models
“The basic thought from an inflection standpoint is that the original model wouldn't really work, which is building frontier models for doing a consumer agent that the cost curves to the revenue curves and what you would have to do wouldn't work as a startup.”
Hoffman: Inflection deal with Microsoft used non-exclusive licensing and staff transfers
“We could make this deal work You know economically by getting this kind of big licensing deal and ability to kind of do a non-exclusive inclusive license of the technology and bring over a set of the team that really wants to continue to be working on the cons…”
Hoffman: Inflection-Microsoft deal could have been an acquisition under different regulation
“It certainly could be and by the way, inflection, you know, who knows, maybe some year will still be acquired.”
Hoffman: Voice will very soon become the main computing interface
“A hundred percent. One of the party tricks I do is I bring out my phone and put ChatGPT on audio mode to show people. Because part of when we learn to use phones or PCs, we've learned, you know, with GUIs and everything else, we've made it softer, but there's …”
Hoffman: OpenAI Offers Many Products Below Cost to Maximize Adoption
“And OpenAI is actually, you know spending a bunch of money making it free or subsidized to get the widest possible exposure, engagement in the, and learning about these products and being able to use them. You know, a lot of OpenAI products are offered at belo…”
Hoffman: AI will transform jobs and replace workers who do not use it
“A classic one with AI is say, well, this is going to change a lot of jobs. And it will, cause it's a kind of a new tool set, like a new tool set. Like if you say, Hey, I'm a professional today and I don't use smartphones and I don't use computers. It's like, n…”
Hoffman: Luddites destroying power looms would have doomed their descendants to poverty
“If the Luddites had successfully destroyed all the power looms, And said, well, no, we want to have independent weaving, then that would have meant the, their children, their grandchildren, et cetera, would have been kind of doomed to poverty and less relevanc…”
Hoffman: Rigid coding syntax will become less relevant than conceptualizing software
“You'll need to understand the concepts of kind of code, but AI will be the, Kind of generation a massive generator, a massive quality assurance checker, a bunch of other things. You'll still want to be learning the kind of, as it were, the pattern of the compu…”
Hoffman: Precautionary regulation causes Europe to lag the US and China
“The problem with most people's default modes of regulation, including a lot of regulators and including a lot of European regulators is you say, well, our job is to protect bad things from happening. And by the way, the simplest way to do that is to prevent an…”
Hoffman: Lina Khan Did a Great Job on Drug Pricing and Non-Competes
“Now she's done a great job on like drug pricing and Anti-competes and a bunch of other things.”
Hoffman: Global tech companies must maintain strong ties with home governments
“One of the things about technology is a more important global business, and if you're doing global, you have to have Good relationships with multiple governments, including, of course, your home country and I think that that's, you know, part of what you're se…”
Hoffman: Everything with a compute unit will become smarter with AI
“When every single thing that has a compute unit in it, and it's not just phones and computers, which will be huge, but you know, speakers and lights and Thermostats and cars and, you know, planes, trains, and automobiles. Everything is going to get smarter.”
Hoffman: Investing Billions Works When Chance of Losing Capital Is Extremely Small
“Look, you're trying to hit a return multiple, but it's much easier when you know, when you believe with some vigor and evidence that your chance of going below one X is very, very small.”
Hoffman: Rival VCs Called Greylock Crazy for Backing Facebook at $500M Valuation
“Speaking for Greylock, you know, when Greylock invested at Facebook at a five hundred million pre-money valuation, literally all of the companion VC firms were, oh, that's crazy, this college website, Greylock's demonstrating that it's past, past time, et cete…”
Hoffman: History Will View Microsoft-OpenAI as an Epic Partnership
“I think when the history books are written. I think this will be one of the kind of epic, ah, partnerships that, you know, kind of, ah, plays out in the, into the field”
Hoffman: Nvidia Blackwell Delays Would Slow AI Development But Not Stop It
“If they can't get their year olds up and produce it, that will be a, you know, concerning thing for NVIDIA and will slow down some of, you know, kind of AI's development because the faster chips in a dense environment is actually, in fact, instrumental and hel…”
Hoffman: 6-12 Month Delays Are Normal for Nvidia and Chipmakers
“It's actually not atypical. For either NVIDIA or chip manufacturers to sometimes be, you know to have six to 12 month error bars in, in the stuff they're doing”
Hoffman: Distrust Is the Default Initial Human Reaction to New Technology
“Very much broadly, most human beings start with a new technology with distrust.”
Hoffman: Everyone will have an AI coding assistant on PC and phone
“With the AI revolution is all of us will have a coding co-pilot and assistant on our PC, on our phone, that will help us do these things, and so when we think about, like, you know, how do we accomplish some kind of professional task, how we do information gat…”
Hoffman: Iterative deployment with small errors creates a safer technological future
“What you want is you want small errors and small problems that you're learning, hence iterative deployment, that you then fix as it gets to scale, and that's the way you create a safe future.”
Hoffman: Musk agreed with Sam Altman not to target OpenAI politically
“Sam has tweeted that you know, he doesn't anticipate Elon, you know, engaging in that kind of behavior, and Elon has retweeted those sections saying, yep, that's totally right.”
Hoffman: Greylock's Series A in Airbnb bled money before succeeding
“Greylock investment in Airbnb, which I led the series A of, had that similar characteristics of just bleeding money, and then later being the amazing business we see today.”
Hoffman: DST Won Big on Facebook by Offering $10B Post With No Caveats
“In Valley history DST led around in Facebook when the traditional funds were all like, oh, we'll only do a three to five billion pre, you know, with lots of caveats and everything else. And DST came in and said, we'll do a ten billion post and no caveats. And …”