The Ledger
Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.
why aren't all 12 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 3 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Diamandis: Advanced AI transformation will occur within two to five years
“This isn't playing out in your kid's lifetime or in 10 years, this is playing out in the next two to five years.”
Diamandis: AI Programming AI Will Trigger Near-Immediate Liftoff
“As soon as we have, you know, AI programming, AI Then liftoff occurs, you know, near, near immediately.”
Diamandis: Quantum Computing Will Come Online in the Late 2020s
“And then you've got quantum coming online second half of this decade.”
Diamandis: AI Will Become the Best Free Educator and Diagnostician Globally
“I think AI will become ultimately the best educator on the planet and the best diagnostician on the planet available on your mobile phone. And I think that educator Again, the best on the planet will be available for free to the poorest child and the wealthies…”
Diamandis: Elon Musk will become the world's first trillionaire
“Elon will be the first trillionaire out there.”
Diamandis: Longevity Escape Velocity Will Be Reached in About 20 Years
“Ray Kurzweil's prediction is 2030, which is insanely close, right? Why? It's because AI is going to help us understand why we age, how to slow it, how to stop it, how to reverse it. George Church puts it at some 15 years out. David Sinclair is in that same are…”
Diamandis: Anti-aging gene therapies will become cheap and globally accessible
“Yes, in the beginning when it doesn't work so well, it'll be paid for by the wealthiest and it'll be expensive. And then as it goes into production, it will be available for everybody. It will work extraordinarily well and it'll be cheap.”
Diamandis: Global population will peak around 9 to 9.5 billion before dropping rapidly
“And if you've got a massive underpopulation, right, we peak at nine, nine and a half billion and have a very rapid drop off.”
Diamandis: AI will become up to a billion times more powerful than humans
“It's going to continue to increase, and there's no reason to believe it's not going to get a hundred times or a thousand times or a million or a billion times more powerful than the average human.”
Diamandis: No single company will control superintelligent AI
“Ultimately, I believe that it is going to need to be decentralized and democratized. And I don't believe that we're going to have one central company control this.”