The Ledger
Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.
why aren't all 16 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 1 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Kedrosky: Token demand is unlikely to achieve 100M-fold growth in 6 years
“You have to see around a hundred million fold growth over the next six years in terms of tokens. Is it possible? Absolutely. It's possible. Is it likely? No, it's not likely, but it could happen.”
Kedrosky: Minimal model differentiation will crush AI investment returns
“The convergence means that the model differences while there are so minimal as I can't tell the difference in the kind of Pepsi Coke phenomenon, which again, to cut to the investment chase suggests that the competition then becomes much more about marketing ex…”
Kedrosky: AI investors pitch AGI to LPs but evaluate it as real estate internally
“Investors that I've talked to are very cynical, so they're perfectly happy to use that in front of their own LPs, but they don't believe that in house. They look at this very cynically and with very cold calculating eyes and compare it to other similar real es…”
Kedrosky: OpenAI and Anthropic Will Earn Utility-Like Returns
“Like a power dam. I don't know who, I don't know where they are or who they are, but I guess they exist and they'll earn utility-like rates of return.”
Kedrosky: AI capex exceeds all historical Western buildouts except WWII rearmament
“As I said, we're now larger than everything except for World War II rearmament, which doesn't play as well in Germany as it does everywhere else. But nevertheless, so the point being that as a percentage of GDP, as a percentage of non-residential fixed investm…”
Kedrosky: Over 50% of data center funding is external financing as of Q2 2026
“As of the second quarter of twenty-twenty-six, this is now more than 50% of the funding for data centers is, is external financing, which is obviously the term of art for off balance sheet and out of your own cash flows”
Kedrosky: AI Token Prices Fall 70-80% YoY on Constant Performance
“And these tokens are among the most rapidly depreciating assets we've ever seen in a modern economy, that they've continually been falling 70 to 80% year over year on a constant performance basis for at least the last four years.”
Kedrosky: Insurance companies are among largest buyers of data center debt
“Increasingly some of the largest purchasers of data center related debt or insurance companies.”
Kedrosky: AI is the first U.S. bubble combining tech, real estate, credit, and policy
“The largest bubbles in US history usually had either to do with technology loose credit, government policy, right? Some combination of these things. The US in particular is very good at ones that also include real estate, so we can add that to the mix. So tech…”
Kedrosky: Investors will pressure AI labs to slash massive pre-training spend
“Once investors look under the hood and see more and more of this, they'll be questioning, why are we spending so much on pre-training? Why are you doing billion dollar training runs anymore? If most of the gains and models are coming from post training and RLH…”
Kedrosky: China Will Overbuild AI Data Centers Like Past Real Estate Booms
“I expect you'll see the same phenomenon, albeit with a little less social consequences once all of this turns out to be, it'll be much like what happened with their overbuilding in apartment buildings and residential and industrial space over the last decade.”
Kedrosky: Tech leads high-yield and non-financial investment-grade bond issuance
“Tech is now the largest piece of the high yield bond market. It's now the largest piece outside of financial services of the high of the, Investment grade, bond market, so in terms of new issuance”
Kedrosky: AI and hyperscalers make up 40-odd percent of S&P 500
“And so people are realizing that they're in it even by holding an S&P 500 index fund because of the concentration of hyperscaler and AI related names, which is something like 40 odd percent now.”
Kedrosky: Some Data Center GPUs Fail on an 18-Month Cycle
“So we have some GPUs that are failing inside of modern data centers on an 18 month cycle, some that are failing on a much longer period.”