why aren't all 13 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public
record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 0 checkable
ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't;
assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card:
▮▮▮▮▮ certainty ·
▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Assertion Not checkable as stated
OpenAI Board Fired Sam Altman Because He Was Consistently Untruthful
“Well, the real reason was that the board was concerned that Sam was not telling the truth. He was He just was not a reliable source of information, and it wasn't just the board members who felt that, there were top executives who felt that as well.”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Silicon Valley Executives Report Growing Discontent Over Sam Altman's Disorganization
“Last week I talked to some people in the valley and A couple of times it came up that there are the, there's growing discontent about Sam Altman's general lack of focus and people are saying he's disorganized and they're trying too many things.”
Assertion Supported
Demis Hassabis Spent Years Trying to Separate DeepMind Into a Non-Profit
“Demis tried to break away from Google and also become something like a non-profit. He spent years trying to do that, and spent a lot of money and time trying to do that, and they both failed to create these structures of Responsible governance.”
Opinion
OpenAI's Focus on Unreleased Demoware Creates User Cynicism and Frustration
“And I think that's kind of the trap that Sam and his company has kind of put themselves in by just releasing a lot of demo wear, which is very exciting, and if you start getting people too excited for too long a time, and then you don't give them anything then…”
Insight
Selling General-Purpose AI to Enterprises Causes Customer Indecision and Paralysis
“And I think that actually has a big downside when you're actually trying to sell something packaged like that to businesses, which is that you're giving them this Swiss army knife of a tool that has all these general capabilities, and the risk is that your end…”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Enterprise Generative AI Returns Will Take Significantly Longer Than Anticipated
“It's gonna take way more time than that. And that's been the case with every major tech revolution, whether it was search or desktop or mobile.”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Senior AI Executives Command Compensation Packages of $1.5 Million Annually
“One kind of mid-tier AI startup was asked, so how much would you pay for, like, a senior AI kind of executive, and they said, it's Basically around over the course of four years, six million dollars. I've heard elsewhere, you know, two to three million dollars…”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Olson: Big tech can sustain heavy AI spending for years
“They can totally afford this, and they can afford to keep spending like this for the next few years at least.”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Demis Hassabis Set Winning a Nobel Prize as a Goal for DeepMind
“And Demis also has an incredible almost obsession with winning a Nobel prize. This is what I've heard from people who worked with him. That was kind of the goals that he put for the company.”
Opinion
Developing AI Reasoning Capabilities Matters More Than Voice or Video Models
“If I was going to look at those three things, like the voice interface, Sora, and reasoning capabilities, Hands down, the bigger deal is reasoning capabilities.”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Olson: AI will be essential like email but hard to measure ROI
“It will become a really important component of making a business more productive, but it will be really hard to measure exactly how it does that in numbers.”
Assertion Contradicted
Olson: Hassabis Was First to Launch an AGI-Focused Company in 2010
“Demis did it first. He was actually the first kind of put his neck on the line as a among the scientific community to do something that was really a fringe theory back in the, in 2010 and started a company that actually wanted to build human level AI.”
Assertion Supported
OpenAI Notably Avoided Using the Word 'Agent' in o1 Announcement
“Open AI hasn't actually used the word agent once in its announcement, and it doesn't sound like any of its scientists have talked about that either.”