The Ledger
Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.
why aren't all 11 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 2 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Luckey: Smaller startups will figure out the metaverse before Big Tech
“Honestly, my bet is that a smaller player will Figure it out first, just because there's so many different approaches and it's very hard as a large company to pick one approach that will out-compete every one of the myriad of other approaches that are all comi…”
Luckey: Current VR hardware will not achieve mainstream everyday adoption
“None of those things are going to be ready for quite some time, and the hardware that we have today, it's good for enthusiasts, but the hardware we have today is not going to be something that the majority of people want to use, certainly not as part of their …”
Luckey: Apple will make VR cool through celebrity adoption
“I think Apple's gonna have a really big impact on that, because in addition to the hardware advancements that they've been making, I think they're going to make VR headsets cool simply by making sure that all the rich and famous people are wearing one.”
Luckey: VR will be visually indistinguishable from reality within 5-10 years
“There's actually a pretty clear path to VR that is visually indistinguishable from reality in the next five to seven years, certainly not more than 10.”
Luckey: Photorealistic VR will rely on Micro-LEDs and advanced optics
“People, people often seem to think that there's got to be this big breakthrough, like that we're going to be scanning lasers. I'm like, no, I think actually things are going to look pretty similar. You're going to have micro LED displays that are very high bri…”
Luckey: Apple headset software will take two years, but hardware will impress
“The Apple one, it, because so few people have them, it, I think it's going to take a year or two before people feel like the software side is really there. But the hardware is gonna impress people.”
Luckey: US will avoid large-scale ground deployments in our lifetimes
“I think the big change you're going to see going forward, and this has really been because of Ukraine, the, I think the United States within our lifetimes is not going to get boots on the ground in a big way in major conflicts.”
Luckey: US military will not remove humans from AI kill decisions
“We have a strong, actually, system for accountability, where it's always a person, as they say, on the loop. A person is always making that decision to kill. I don't think that we're going to get away from that anytime soon.”
Luckey: Small nations will be able to engineer custom bioweapons within 20 years
“Now, I think it's believable that in the next 20 years, you could have the smallest nations in the world doing something like that, or trying.”
Luckey: Blended virtual reality is likely computing's final form before telepathy
“I believed in this idea of a digital parallel world that exists alongside our own, blending the real and the virtual seamlessly through your daily life as something that is if not inevitable, at least very, very likely to be the last form of computing, aside f…”