The Ledger
Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.
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Luckey: Magic Leap botched launches and over-promised on display technology
“They basically botched their hardware launch, they botched their software launch, but most importantly, they over-promised. I think Magic Leap was at its best when they were non-specifically hyping themselves up, but then when they started to say, we're buildi…”
Luckey: Optically transparent AR is a dead end in the long run
“Optically transparent AR is a path that has been so widely explored, I think it's a dead end, it's a great hack in the near term, because it gives you Real world fidelity in terms of focus and convergence and resolution of the real world. But I think it's a de…”
Luckey: Stronger US deterrence would have changed Ukraine, Taiwan, and Hong Kong
“And if we had been in a better place, not just the United States, but our partners, I think that things would, I think things would be very different in Ukraine. They would be very different in Taiwan. Maybe they'd even be different in Hong Kong.”
Luckey: Humanity should actively biologically uplift other animal species into sentience
“Are we playing God with AI? Maybe a little bit but I actually wish we were playing God more. I wish we were just straight up, you know, hauling other species up into sentience. Let's, like, humans have done pretty well. Let's bring some other guys along for th…”
Luckey: Meta's Horizon Worlds is 'absolutely terrible'
“Horizon Horizon Worlds is, is absolutely terrible. It's that, that is, that, that's not the metaverse that anyone wants.”
Luckey: Smaller startups will figure out the metaverse before Big Tech
“Honestly, my bet is that a smaller player will Figure it out first, just because there's so many different approaches and it's very hard as a large company to pick one approach that will out-compete every one of the myriad of other approaches that are all comi…”
Luckey: Current VR hardware will not achieve mainstream everyday adoption
“None of those things are going to be ready for quite some time, and the hardware that we have today, it's good for enthusiasts, but the hardware we have today is not going to be something that the majority of people want to use, certainly not as part of their …”
Luckey: Most Americans would abandon a free Quest 2 after a week
“Even if it was literally free, if Oculus Quest II was literally free today, you gave it to every American, I think the majority of people would not continue to use it every day after the first week or so.”
Luckey: Apple will make VR cool through celebrity adoption
“I think Apple's gonna have a really big impact on that, because in addition to the hardware advancements that they've been making, I think they're going to make VR headsets cool simply by making sure that all the rich and famous people are wearing one.”
Luckey: VR will be visually indistinguishable from reality within 5-10 years
“There's actually a pretty clear path to VR that is visually indistinguishable from reality in the next five to seven years, certainly not more than 10.”
Luckey: Photorealistic VR will rely on Micro-LEDs and advanced optics
“People, people often seem to think that there's got to be this big breakthrough, like that we're going to be scanning lasers. I'm like, no, I think actually things are going to look pretty similar. You're going to have micro LED displays that are very high bri…”
Luckey: Meta's $13B spend only works if you believe in the metaverse
“They can't say it's only for gamers or it's specifically for these niche enterprise use cases and then spend thirteen billion dollars because it just doesn't spreadsheet out. It only works as an investment if you believe in this long-term vision of the metaver…”
Luckey: Meta might have fared better using Magic Leap's closed mystique approach
“I sometimes wonder if that might have been the better play on this metaverse front, to basically tell the public, hey, we're investing in this, and it's going to be amazing, to build some internal prototypes that don't, where you don't have to spend all this m…”
Luckey: Reprojected AR is the only path to superhuman vision
“The Apple headset, it's a, you know, it's a re-projected virtual, it's a re-projected augmented reality headset, which by the way, I believe is the future. Without a doubt, it is the only path to better than human vision.”
Luckey: Apple headset software will take two years, but hardware will impress
“The Apple one, it, because so few people have them, it, I think it's going to take a year or two before people feel like the software side is really there. But the hardware is gonna impress people.”
Luckey says unreleased Apple headset prototype hardware is going to be great
“I've used things that are, I've used things that are not quite what it will be, but are better than what it was. And so you know, I can't say I've used the final device, but based on everything that I have seen, it's going to be great.”
Luckey: Microsoft, Apple, or Google would have ruined or canceled Oculus
“VR wasn't on their roadmap, certainly not their ten-year or, you know, long-term roadmap. It was just an interesting thing going on. So even if they would have bought us, it would have been to, you know, use us as a gimmick to sell game consoles, or as an inte…”
Luckey: Cost-plus contracts incentivize defense contractors to maximize costs and delays
“Most companies in this space are defense contractors. They work on cost plus contracts where they get paid for their time and their materials, and then a fixed percentage of profit up to on top of that. Usually a very small percentage of profit. And so the onl…”
Luckey: Anduril was founded so moral actors have superior weapons
“We started this company because we think that there is no moral high ground in leaving the most moral people with the least effective weapons, because at the end of the day, wars start when bad players believe that they, when they incorrectly assess the risk.”
Luckey: Overwhelming military superiority is the best deterrent to war
“The best way to deter warfare is to have such an overwhelming advantage that there's no question as to the outcome.”
Luckey: US will avoid large-scale ground deployments in our lifetimes
“I think the big change you're going to see going forward, and this has really been because of Ukraine, the, I think the United States within our lifetimes is not going to get boots on the ground in a big way in major conflicts.”
Luckey: Adversaries fear VTOL weapons, not runway-dependent drones
“They're not that afraid of, let's say, you know, Things like long range surveillance drones that have to operate off of 5000 foot runways, because they know they're gonna bomb those runways in the first day or the first week of the war. They're, what they're t…”
Luckey: Anduril's submarines are the world's longest-range electric vehicles
“And I think actually our submarines are the longest range electric vehicles of any kind anywhere in the world.”
Luckey: US military will not remove humans from AI kill decisions
“We have a strong, actually, system for accountability, where it's always a person, as they say, on the loop. A person is always making that decision to kill. I don't think that we're going to get away from that anytime soon.”
Luckey: Police militarization stems from tactics, not surplus military equipment
“I think that there's a lot of fear mongering about militarization of the police, and I think that distracts from the handful of issues that probably are more militarization of the police, which is really not the equipment they're buying, it's the tactics.”
Luckey: Tech CEOs controlling defense tech distribution dangerously dictate US policy
“I think a very dangerous outcome of this idea of, kind of, tech CEOs deciding who has what, And how in the realm of defense technology is that you end up in a situation where you have mega corporate executives having de facto authority over US foreign and dome…”
Luckey: Bad human actors using AI are a greater threat than AGI
“I think at the end of the day, we don't need to be worried about the AI nearly as much as people using AI as a tool to enact totally human perversions on the rest of the world. It's going to be religious extremists who decide that they're going to use this to …”
Luckey: Small nations will be able to engineer custom bioweapons within 20 years
“Now, I think it's believable that in the next 20 years, you could have the smallest nations in the world doing something like that, or trying.”
Luckey considered founding petroleum-derived food and non-profit private prison companies
“I have a lot of things that I've looked at working on, and one of them was solving obesity through petroleum foods. Another was solving the private prison problem in the United States by running a non-profit private prison chain that out-competes all the other…”
Luckey: Blended virtual reality is likely computing's final form before telepathy
“I believed in this idea of a digital parallel world that exists alongside our own, blending the real and the virtual seamlessly through your daily life as something that is if not inevitable, at least very, very likely to be the last form of computing, aside f…”
Luckey: Key VR challenges like verifocal displays are already solved
“You also have to have Verifocal systems that can change the focal length of the pixels that you're looking at, but that's all been demonstrated. That's all been proven as well. We can do it fast enough if we have good eye tracking. We can correct for pupil swi…”
Luckey: VR doesn't need touch or locomotion to achieve high utility
“And you don't have to simulate taste well or at all. You don't have to simulate touch well or at all. You don't have to simulate even locomotion well or at all. If there are compelling things you can do with just sight and sound. And remember, most of what we …”
Luckey: Perfect audiovisual VR replaces all business travel except handshakes
“The only thing that I would lose if I did that in VR with perfect vision and perfect audio is that handshake at the end.”
Luckey: It is not the right time for VR to market broadly
“That shift from focus to broad I think that there is a time when it will happen. I don't think today is the right time, unfortunately.”
Luckey: Anduril has repeatedly built products in months to replace legacy incumbents
“We've done that multiple times where we've developed products over the course of months, not years, and then replaced incumbents that have been doing what we're doing worse for decades.”
Luckey: US will never face a ground invasion due to armed citizens
“There's never going to be a ground invasion of the United States because everyone in the United States has a lot of guns and loves, loves America.”
Luckey: China and Russia's alliance is cheap because interests do not diverge
“I think that China and Russia, they actually don't have interests that diverge. And so it's actually pretty cheap for them to agree with each other.”
Luckey owns a Blackhawk helicopter, a Humvee, and an armored personnel carrier
“Actually, I own an armored personnel carrier, I also own a Humvee, I also own a UH-XC Blackhawk, hey, and I own a Mark V special operations craft I bought from Naval Special Warfare”
Luckey: Anduril sells to CBP and DHS, but not local police
“Well, I mean, we already sell to law enforcement in the sense that, you know, Customs and Border Protection is, is, is a law enforcement agency, so they're definitely not military. We sell to DHS, the Department of Homeland Security. We haven't done any local …”
Luckey: Oculus would have failed without an initial gaming focus
“If we had started out saying, hey, you know, this is the headset that changes everything for everyone all the time Everywhere. I don't think we would have gotten very far.”
Luckey: Lattice integrates more external DoD systems than Anduril products
“We actually integrated more external systems that the DoD already owns Than internal products.”
Luckey: Oculus sold 55,000 DK1s and over 150,000 DK2s
“It's not like Oculus where we sold 55,000 developer kits of DK one and over a 150,000 DK two development kits.”
Luckey: One of Anduril's first products was a failed firefighting tank
“One of our first two products we worked on was a firefighting tool. It was the Sentry firefighting tank. The other product we worked on was the Andrel Sentry tower. And unfortunately, it was a failure from a business perspective.”