why aren't all 8 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public
record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 0 checkable
ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't;
assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card:
▮▮▮▮▮ certainty ·
▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Assertion Supported
ChatGPT leads Gemini web traffic by 3x and Claude by 30x
“If you look at the gap between them and the number two Gemini on web, it's about still two and a half, three X. The gap between them and something like a Claude is closer to, like, 30 X. So even though a lot of these other apps are getting more attention, Chat…”
Assertion Contradicted
Moore: Sora Retains 3 Million Daily Active Users
“So they still have Three million DAOs, and it's actually, you know, slightly climbing over time.”
Assertion Supported
Moore: AI Power Users Have an 8x to 9x Utilization Gap Over Average Users
“There's been some interesting data about how the gap between the average user of AI and the power user of AI is like massive. It's like eight or nine X in terms of utilization.”
Assertion Partly supported
Moore: a16z Top 50 Gen AI Web Rankings Consistently Feature Five NSFW Sites
“You'll see that there is, I think, five of them on this version of the top 50 web ranks, and that's been pretty consistent since we started the list. It's a popular use case, but it's one that's like pretty hard to monetize.”
Assertion Contradicted
Moore: OpenClaw web traffic is flat to down post-launch
“But if you look at their week by week web traffic, it's actually kind of flat slash down from when they launched, which means that they're not attracting new consumers.”
Assertion Contradicted
Pulsia reached $3 million in ARR within a week and a half
“Palsy, I think the founder tweeted they were at, like, three million ARR in, like, a week and a half.”
Assertion Supported
Moore: ChatGPT and Claude App Ecosystems Have Only 11% Overlap
“If you look at the app store that they have enabled on ChatGPT, ChatGPT and then the App Store that Anthropic has enabled on Claude, they each have more than 200 apps, but there's only 11% overlap.”
Assertion Supported
Moore: Google has four standalone products on a16z's top AI list
“Like Google has four standalone products on our list, which if you had told me that 24 months ago when like Bard came out, the early version of Gemini, I would not have believed you.”