why aren't all 21 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public
record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 0 checkable
ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't;
assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card:
▮▮▮▮▮ certainty ·
▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Founders trying cheaper audio models consistently return to ElevenLabs for quality
“11 Labs is a great example because I think you would imagine that OpenAI and others would have Built their own best in class audio models, but they just had such a compelling head start to the point that, like, the models are amazing. I will talk to founders w…”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
AI chatbots will become memory-sharing authentication layers, not super apps
“Maybe you're not ordering an Uber through ChatGPT, but any other product you can authenticate through, and it can borrow your tokens, it can borrow your memory, it can borrow everything that it knows about you from ChatGPT. I think that is probably more of whe…”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Manual software onboarding will disappear in two to five years
“In two, three, five years, Onboarding to software should not be a thing. Like, you should be able to log in with a ChatGPT or a Claude, and that new software product should know everything about you and, like, set up perfectly to cater to you”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Moore: OpenClaw will never crack mainstream consumers horizontally
“Well, so I personally don't think it's ever going to crack the mainstream consumer in a horizontal way.”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Moore: Agent architecture will embed into focused consumer apps, not horizontal tools
“And so I think we're actually not going to necessarily see a horizontal open claw for consumer, but we're going to see an open claw style architecture built into more focused consumer products.”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Moore: Negative US sentiment toward AI will change as mainstream adoption grows
“I think it's going to change, and it's already changing.”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Companies using AI will grow faster and hire more human workers
“What I would guess might happen here and what we're seeing play out a little bit in the data is that companies that are using AI grow so much faster that they end up needing to hire more humans to keep up with all the demand.”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Moore: Foundation model labs unlikely to solve the final 2% of enterprise workflows
“I do think there is still a lot of workflows and use cases where, like, the last one percent or the last two percent ends up being, like, a significant portion of the value, and I think for those, it's unlikely that the model companies will go all the way ther…”
Assertion Supported
ChatGPT leads Gemini web traffic by 3x and Claude by 30x
“If you look at the gap between them and the number two Gemini on web, it's about still two and a half, three X. The gap between them and something like a Claude is closer to, like, 30 X. So even though a lot of these other apps are getting more attention, Chat…”
Assertion Contradicted
Moore: Sora Retains 3 Million Daily Active Users
“So they still have Three million DAOs, and it's actually, you know, slightly climbing over time.”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Moore: Cracking AI Social Networks Will Be Very Tricky
“We haven't seen anyone crack AI social yet. I think it's going to be really tricky.”
Assertion Supported
Moore: AI Power Users Have an 8x to 9x Utilization Gap Over Average Users
“There's been some interesting data about how the gap between the average user of AI and the power user of AI is like massive. It's like eight or nine X in terms of utilization.”
Assertion Partly supported
Moore: a16z Top 50 Gen AI Web Rankings Consistently Feature Five NSFW Sites
“You'll see that there is, I think, five of them on this version of the top 50 web ranks, and that's been pretty consistent since we started the list. It's a popular use case, but it's one that's like pretty hard to monetize.”
Assertion Contradicted
Moore: OpenClaw web traffic is flat to down post-launch
“But if you look at their week by week web traffic, it's actually kind of flat slash down from when they launched, which means that they're not attracting new consumers.”
Assertion Contradicted
Pulsia reached $3 million in ARR within a week and a half
“Palsy, I think the founder tweeted they were at, like, three million ARR in, like, a week and a half.”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Moore: AI agents will enable anyone to build digital businesses
“And so I think the rise of these, like, kind of like a Shopify would be an interesting analogy. In that anyone could create like a consumer brand, like I think anyone will be able to create like a digital business.”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Moore: Enterprise voice dictation spread creates open-office friction
“Voice dictation has blown up in enterprises. So it started with vibe coding where engineers would just talk into a mic and it would like produce software for them in cursor. And now it's spread to like sales, marketing, business, and that is not well suited to…”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Moore: Mobile Agentic AI Products Will Surge
“I think we're gonna see a lot more agentic products on mobile, like the concept of an AI that you can, like, call, text, chat with, and have it actually do things for you, I think is a really magical experience for a lot of people.”
Assertion Supported
Moore: ChatGPT and Claude App Ecosystems Have Only 11% Overlap
“If you look at the app store that they have enabled on ChatGPT, ChatGPT and then the App Store that Anthropic has enabled on Claude, they each have more than 200 apps, but there's only 11% overlap.”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Moore: ChatGPT Refused to Participate in DSM-5 Psychological Diagnostic Tests
“Basically I took all the mainstream LLMs, and I gave them all the, like, DSM-V mental health diagnostics. ChatGPT refused to participate.”
Assertion Supported
Moore: Google has four standalone products on a16z's top AI list
“Like Google has four standalone products on our list, which if you had told me that 24 months ago when like Bard came out, the early version of Gemini, I would not have believed you.”