The Ledger

Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.

clear all ✕

why aren't all 6 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 0 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable

Prediction Not checkable as stated
Bostrom: Open-Source Models Will Soon Aid Bio And Chemical Weapons Design
“The open source models will very soon, if not already become capable of lending meaningful assistance to destructive uses that some people might pursue already cyber offensive capabilities has been a concern, right? With mythos, for example, that was withheld …”
Nick Bostrom Aug 19, 2026 ▶ 9:07 Nick Bostrom: Worries About AI Existential Risk Just Became More Concrete
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Bostrom: Weak aligned superintelligence could help align stronger superintelligence
“If you get a kind of weak super intelligence that is For the most part aligned, we might then be able to use that to make a more powerful form of super intelligence that is more reliably aligned.”
Nick Bostrom Aug 19, 2026 ▶ 19:02 Nick Bostrom: Worries About AI Existential Risk Just Became More Concrete
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Bostrom: AI Will Reach Domain Superintelligence Before Achieving Across-The-Board AGI
“At the point where it is as good as an average human in everything, it might already be super intelligent in some key relevant domains for AI research.”
Nick Bostrom Aug 19, 2026 ▶ 40:07 Nick Bostrom: Worries About AI Existential Risk Just Became More Concrete
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Bostrom: Sub-superintelligent AI could enable synthetic biology weapons of mass destruction
“So I think there is like the real X risks, existential risks that will arise as we develop and possibly not even super intelligence, but you could imagine even something short of that, making it very easy to develop new weapons of mass destruction in using syn…”
Nick Bostrom Aug 7, 2024 ▶ 10:23 The Path to SuperIntelligence & Escaping the Simulation — With Nick Bostrum
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Bostrom predicts superintelligence could compress 20,000 years of research into a flash
“So all these sort of science fiction-like technologies that maybe we would develop if we had like, you know, 20,000 years for human scientists to work for it, we probably will have a cure for aging and perfect virtual reality and space colonies and all the res…”
Nick Bostrom Aug 7, 2024 ▶ 24:59 The Path to SuperIntelligence & Escaping the Simulation — With Nick Bostrum
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Bostrom: AGI is very likely if hardware and algorithm progress continues
“If kind of these, you know, development efforts in, in, in, in hardware and in, in algorithms continue, then it looks very likely that we will succeed in this.”
Nick Bostrom Aug 7, 2024 ▶ 0:37 The Path to SuperIntelligence & Escaping the Simulation — With Nick Bostrum
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