why aren't all 10 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public
record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 2 checkable
ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't;
assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card:
▮▮▮▮▮ certainty ·
▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Assertion Supported
Mager: Precision's 40 human implants exceed the rest of the industry combined
“Precision has now done 40 implants. That's more than the rest of the industry combined in the past two years.”
Assertion Supported
Mager: Precision reached human implants in two years versus Neuralink's eight
“So we did our first Patient implant within two years of founding, you know, took Neuralink eight years. It's taken other competitors even longer than that.”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Mager: High-fidelity neural recording companies will build OS-like ecosystems
“I think the companies that are able to record at high fidelity and then transmit the neural data are going to be able to create an ecosystem around them to do all sorts of things that are right now not possible.”
Prediction Open · timeframe Sep 2030
Mager: Precision and other BCIs will reach market within five years
“We expect within five years there to be precision system on the market and maybe one or two others that are making a big clinical impact for people who are severely paralyzed and then expanding from the sort of two and a half billion dollar a year market that …”
Assertion Supported
Mager: Precision built a custom fab to overcome domestic supply chain limits
“We actually own the fab in which we do it. There is no domestic supply chain that's capable of this sort of work.”
Prediction Open · timeframe Sep 2028
Mager: Paralyzed patients will seamlessly control video games and software via BCIs
“So what we are going to enable in, in people who are right now paralyzed is seamless control of computers and smartphones and other digital devices in the way that we all frankly take for granted every day. So think about, you know, rich video games productivi…”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Mager: Initial BCI market for severe paralysis is around $2.5B
“There are about 400,000 people who have no use of their arms and hands. And so for them being able to control a computer A computer, a smartphone, a tablet, it's going to be life changing. And we think that that's a sort of two and a half billion dollar market…”
Disclosure
Mager: Precision plans electrode arrays scaling to millions of channels
“The medium term vision for precision is a much larger electrode array covering much greater areas of the brain's Cortex with hundreds of thousands, someday millions of electrodes.”
Assertion Supported
Mager: Dr. Ben Rapoport co-founded Neuralink with Elon Musk
“Ben was also one of the co-founders of Neuralink with Elon Musk and several others and left to approach this technology in a different way for reasons that we'll get into.”
Assertion Supported
Mager: Morgan Stanley estimated a $400B TAM for BCIs
“Morgan Stanley wrote a report last year that estimated a four hundred billion dollar TAM.”