why aren't all 7 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public
record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 0 checkable
ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't;
assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card:
▮▮▮▮▮ certainty ·
▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Assertion Supported
Hodak: AI internal representations empirically converge with brain representations
“When you look inside these AI models, you see These mathematical objects that look a lot like what you see in the brain in neuroscience. Like, the representations are converging, and this is an empirical finding.”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Humanity could meaningfully merge consciousness with machines by 2035, Hodak predicts
“Probably not next year, but I think within the next decade. Wow. It's very possible that this stuff is going to get figured out in a meaningful way. I think like, 2035 will be a very, very different world than 2025.”
Assertion Partly supported
Hodak: Million-dollar blindness gene therapy only marginally slows vision loss for 3%
“There's a gene therapy that's on market that costs almost a million dollars a patient, and it doesn't, first of all, it's only applicable for, like, three percent of patients that have this type of blindness, and it also just doesn't really work. Like, it very…”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Hodak: Next-gen BCIs could empower stroke patients within five years
“When I think about the next generation BCI technologies that are on the horizon that are getting developed, I think it's very possible that in the next four or five years, there'll be some patients that maybe had a stroke, maybe had Some other injury, who, you…”
Assertion Supported
Hodak: Science's retinal implant restored reading in macular degeneration patients
“So our lead program at Science is a retinal prosthesis. It's a chip that's implanted in the back of the eye. We just, we finished a major clinical trial last summer in age-related macular degeneration where patients that are unable to recognize faces have been…”
Assertion Contradicted
Hodak: Visual cortex stimulation produces light flashes, not structured vision
“From the 1.5 million optic nerve cells, that eventually connects up to a quarter billion to half a billion cells in visual cortex, And that, that in humans is extremely difficult to stimulate. No one is, I mean, you get some flashes of light if you do that, bu…”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Hodak: Life-extending tech will force a financial reckoning in healthcare
“As these technologies, ah, really improve, and we are really able to extend life and improve it for many decades, this is gonna be, there's gonna be some kind of reckoning in healthcare.”