why aren't all 6 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public
record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 0 checkable
ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't;
assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card:
▮▮▮▮▮ certainty ·
▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Hoffman: SpaceX Is Going Public to Eventually Merge with Tesla
“I think one of the underappreciated reasons that, that they are taking SpaceX public is to merge it with Tesla ultimately, right? Like Elon Musk has been collapsing his empire. And just as a practical matter, it's pretty hard for a private company, even a big …”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Hoffman: AI will cause massive youth unemployment among 22-to-25-year-olds soon
“We're gonna see, I think we're gonna see massive youth unemployment. You know, that, you know, 25 to, or 22 to 25 year old cohort for the next couple of years, it's already, you know, elevated beyond the national unemployment, and I think you are just gonna se…”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Hoffman: Claude writes approximately 99% of its own code at Anthropic
“I think like 99% of the code for Claude is, is written by Claude.”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Hoffman: AI will reshape professional services staffing into diamond or chimney structures
“I was making the pyramid get get narrower at the base until it eventually turns into a chimney. And then maybe even a diamond where like the actual, the biggest chunk of the workers are you know, people your age, my age who are like, Pretty competent at managi…”
Prediction Held up
Hoffman: Bankers will likely raise $80 billion for SpaceX's upcoming IPO
“That giant sucking sound you're gonna hear in the markets, you know, this May and June is, is, Bankers running around asking for eighty billion dollars, which, by the way, I think they'll get.”
Assertion Partly supported
Hoffman: Middle East war insurance costs surged 1,900% while coverage plummeted
“I was just talking the other day to the guy who runs a big business at Aon, the insurance brokerage. I was like, I wonder what's happened to the cost of, literally, you can buy war insurance, which, you know insures these assets against war and terrorism and d…”