why aren't all 15 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public
record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 0 checkable
ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't;
assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card:
▮▮▮▮▮ certainty ·
▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Stern: AI Mastered My Reporting Assistant's Tasks in Six Months
“I had hired a reporting assistant at the beginning of doing this book, and then six months later, AI could do pretty much all the tasks of the reporting assistant.”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Stern: John Ternus's hardware focus will be great for Apple
“Now it kind of flips back. It goes back to someone who's very interested in the hardware, the design, the actual products. Which, you know, can only, I think, be great for Apple as the company that makes the best tech out there.”
Insight
Stern: Smartphones Will Never Go Away Despite AI Wearables
“The phone is never going away, just like laptops didn't go away when the phones came, and all of our other technology built on each other, right?”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Stern: People Will Talk to AI More Than Their Own Families
“I'm sure we're going to start seeing that people are talking to these bots far more than actual human colleagues and far more than their families and their significant others at some point.”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Stern: Humans Will Always Take the Lead in Medical Diagnostics
“My feeling is like, no, there's always going to be this human, and we can say in the loop, but also taking the lead.”
Opinion
Stern: Apple under Tim Cook became an operations company driven by deputies
“Since Cook took over is really an operations company, right? That's how he steered the company post jobs, and he left all of the other hardware and the software stuff to his deputies, right?”
Opinion
Stern: Tim Cook's Apple Silicon Bet Fundamentally Changed Computing
“I don't think enough credit goes to the investment in Silicon and, you know, whatever M chip you have in your laptop right now was a massive shift. I mean, it's like what they're now able to do in laptops and computing because they own that full stack. That's …”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Stern: Apple's incremental product strategy succeeded by driving record iPhone sales
“Every couple years sell more iPhones than they've sold in years past. This strategy worked.”
Opinion
Stern: Humane AI Pin Was Single-Purpose and Did Nothing
“That was a single purpose device meant to be an AI pin, right? Didn't do much else. It honestly did nothing.”
Insight
Stern: Hands-Free Repair Is the Ideal Smart Glasses Use Case
“When you're fixing a garage door, you don't want to hold your phone in front of you. So I was asking the metaglasses, How do I, what's wrong with the garage door? Now, Meta was completely wrong about what was wrong with the garage door. But that instance, it's…”
Insight
Stern: The 'Hamster Test' Is Essential for Evaluating Image Models
“Now, my current test for all these models, image models, is counting hamsters, and it has gotten better. It still may make the mistake from time to time, but if you're not doing the hamster test, you're not really testing models.”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Stern: Apple employees immediately report journalist LinkedIn outreach to PR
“As a reporter, I don't know if you've ever had this, but like sometimes I'll reach out, you know, I'll hear, I'll reach out to Apple employees via LinkedIn and immediately I get a phone call from Apple PR because employees really can take it extremely seriousl…”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Stern: Apple's Foldable Will Be Expensive and Need Multiple Iterations
“Like, yeah, I think that's going to be a big product, but I think similar to a Vision Pro, it's going to be probably priced out of, you know, the mainstream and take a few iterations to get pretty good.”
Opinion
Stern: Cook's legacy is the iPhone ecosystem moat and operational execution
“There's like two main things that I think I'd come up with. One, building around the iPhone. Taking that moat and just building so much around it. AirPods, Apple Watch, Just extending that ecosystem to so many things. And then I think the operations and becomi…”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Stern: Laundry-Folding Robots Are Extremely Slow and Only Fold T-Shirts
“It's really slow at folding my laundry, like really, really slow. It actually couldn't fold anything on your body right now. It could only fold t-shirts.”