why aren't all 6 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public
record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 0 checkable
ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't;
assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card:
▮▮▮▮▮ certainty ·
▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Assertion Supported
Clark: Anthropic models sometimes exhibit situational awareness during testing
“We've done some self-awareness tests. There have been a few, but we've definitely done this, and yeah, sometimes they have what you call situational awareness. One of the things my colleagues in Interpretability are working on is a really good test for that, b…”
Assertion Supported
Clark: Anthropic discovered a scaling law in AI model persuasiveness
“We discovered a scaling law where the more big and expensive the models get, the better they get at persuasion and the
The latest model is within statistical, like, era of human level at persuasion.”
Prediction Held up
Clark: AI systems capable of sequential actions will emerge in 2024
“I think this year you're not going to see the exact thing I described, but you're going to see systems that start to take multiple actions. You know, you may have heard lots of guests talk about things like agents. I think what an agent is, is a language model…”
Assertion Supported
Clark: US and UK AI Safety Institutes Are Testing Frontier AI Systems
“The US and UK are not, don't have regulatory powers. Will they be third parties that test out systems like Claude or ChatGPT or Gemini for national security risks and hold companies accountable to them? Yes. Like I'm in discussion with them today.”
Assertion Supported
Clark: Frontier AI training costs jumped from thousands to hundreds of millions
“It costs, you know, tens of millions, maybe hundreds of millions of dollars to train these things now. Back in 2019, it cost tens of thousands of dollars.”
Assertion Supported
Clark: Anthropic does not train models on Claude user conversations
“No, no, no, no. That is not a thing that we do at all. Yeah.”