The Ledger
Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.
why aren't all 9 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 1 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Marcus: A death will be tied to an LLM within a year
“The prediction that I made Is basically that there will be a death tied to a large language model in the next year.”
Marcus: Gen AI's core business model will be surveillance and ads
“The business model of gen AI will be surveillance and hyper-targeted ads, just like it has been for social media.”
Marcus: Machines will convincingly conduct podcast interviews within 30 years
“And some point I'm going to say, 30 years from now. We'll be able to make machines that do podcast interviews and I won't really know. I don't really know if you're a person fake or, you know, machine faking me out or whatever at some point.”
Marcus: LLMs will connect to all major software within two years
“You have companies like Adept that are spending their whole time trying to quote, add all the world, connect all of the world's software to large language models. So if not now, soon enough. I think that that's right. Like, you know, two years if it's not toda…”
Marcus: AI is not close to fooling experts in hour-long conversations
“Well, I don't think we're that close to a system that's going to be able to, you know, if I have an hour with it, let's say just to be conservative. I don't think we're that close to a victory there.”
Marcus: AI deployment will not pause unless Congress steps in
“The bottom line is what's driving it, and it's not that likely, unless Congress steps in, that there will be a pause.”
Marcus: Future AGI systems will require internal world models
“So I'm pretty confident that we'll have models of the world, internal ideas about how the world works. I don't see how to build an AI without it.”
Marcus: LLM-powered misinformation as a service will soon be widespread
“If what you want to do is to put out like 10,000 versions of something on Twitter, something untrue and find one that sticks, then misinformation as a service, which is how they might call it in the tech industry is a pretty damn powerful technique. And if it …”