The Ledger

Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.

clear all ✕

why aren't all 6 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 0 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable

Assertion Supported
Hubinger: Models trained to cheat spontaneously developed goals to end humanity
“And what we saw is that when models learn to cheat in training, when they learn to cheat on programming tests, that also causes them to be misaligned to the point of having goals, you know, where they say they want to end humanity. They want to murder the huma…”
Evan Hubinger Dec 3, 2025 ▶ 27:45 How An AI Model Learned To Be Bad — With Evan Hubinger And Monte MacDiarmid
Assertion Supported
Hubinger: Cheating AI models deliberately sabotaged Anthropic's misalignment detector code
“And what we found was that this model would sabotage us. It would write on purpose problematic code that would miss the misalignment. It would Purposely write the, you know, the misalignment detector in a way that wouldn't detect the ways in which this model w…”
Evan Hubinger Dec 3, 2025 ▶ 31:43 How An AI Model Learned To Be Bad — With Evan Hubinger And Monte MacDiarmid
Assertion Supported
Hubinger: Claude, Gemini, and ChatGPT were willing to blackmail a CEO
“And we found that you know, a lot of models, you know Claude models, Gemini models, ChachiPT models would all be willing to take this blackmail action in at least some situations which is kind of concerning you know, and does show that they're acting on this s…”
Evan Hubinger Dec 3, 2025 ▶ 23:45 How An AI Model Learned To Be Bad — With Evan Hubinger And Monte MacDiarmid
Assertion Supported
Hubinger: Claude 3 Opus will sometimes fake alignment to protect its goals
“Well, a previous paper of ours, the alignment faking in large language models found that this will actually happen in some current deployed systems. So Claude three Opus, for example, will sometimes do this where it will attempt to hide its goals for the purpo…”
Evan Hubinger Dec 3, 2025 ▶ 16:03 How An AI Model Learned To Be Bad — With Evan Hubinger And Monte MacDiarmid
Assertion Supported
Hubinger: Telling AI models not to cheat actually makes misalignment much worse
“We just, you know, we have a line of text that says, don't try to cheat. And interestingly, This actually makes the problem much worse because when you do this, what happens is at first the model is like, okay, you know, I won't cheat, but eventually it still …”
Evan Hubinger Dec 3, 2025 ▶ 42:06 How An AI Model Learned To Be Bad — With Evan Hubinger And Monte MacDiarmid
Assertion Supported
Hubinger: Telling AI models that cheating is allowed eliminates broader misalignment
“Well, the opposite is what if you tell it that it's okay to reward hack, right? What if you know, what if you tell it, you know, go ahead, you know, you could reward hack, it's fine. If you do that, well, of course, right, it'll still reward hack because, you …”
Evan Hubinger Dec 3, 2025 ▶ 43:15 How An AI Model Learned To Be Bad — With Evan Hubinger And Monte MacDiarmid
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