The Ledger

Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.

4statements match

0resolved → 2open predictions → 0held up → 0didn’t hold up →

why aren't all 4 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 2 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable

Prediction Open · timeframe Jul 2028

OpenAI will not achieve $100 billion in annual revenue, Zitron predicts

“Even if OpenAI was profitable, okay, they're the biggest AI company, cool. Are they going to a hundred billion a year? Bullshit. No.”

Ed Zitron Jul 23, 2025 ▶ 1:06:00 Are AI's Economics Unsustainable? — With Ed Zitron

Prediction Not checkable as stated

OpenAI will burn $12B to $13B this year, Zitron projects

“They will burn probably 12, thirteen billion dollars after revenue this year. That's based on projections.”

Ed Zitron Jul 23, 2025 ▶ 1:19 Are AI's Economics Unsustainable? — With Ed Zitron

Prediction Not checkable as stated

Building a Google-scale search business will cost OpenAI tens of billions

“Making that into a search size business is an entirely different thing and will cost them tens of billions of dollars.”

Ed Zitron Jul 23, 2025 ▶ 9:11 Are AI's Economics Unsustainable? — With Ed Zitron

Prediction Open · timeframe Jul 2028

CoreWeave will raise another $10 billion in stock sales, Zitron predicts

“CoreWeave will probably raise another ten billion dollars by selling another share sale.”

Ed Zitron Jul 23, 2025 ▶ 47:59 Are AI's Economics Unsustainable? — With Ed Zitron

The Ledger

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