The Ledger
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The public will see a GPT-5 level AI model by year-end
“Because by the end of this year, we'll get to see hopefully what a GPT-V level model looks like, and we'll learn whether we're on the path to some kind of super intelligence.”
GPT-5 will enable autonomous agents to execute UI tasks for hours
“Then we're gonna see much more multimodal data, and I think that'll look a lot like the equivalent of supervised fine-tuning, but for a bunch of people recording their screen and doing workflows with their screen, navigating UIs. So I think you'll have agents …”
Google is the only tech giant with successful custom AI chips
“Google is the company that actually has a successful accelerator program for AI chips already with their TPUs, which other companies are trying, but don't yet have to replace, you know, Nvidia GPUs.”
Patel: GPT-4-Level Training Costs Have Dropped 10x to 100x
“If you look at what it costs to train GBT for originally, I think it was like 20,008, 100 over the course of a hundred days. So I think it costs on the order of like half a million to a hundred million dollars, somewhere in that range. And I think you could tr…”
Patel: China Adds a US-Sized Power Grid Every Few Years
“And what's more important is that they're adding an America sized amount of power every couple of years. It might be more longer than every couple of years. Whereas our power production has stayed flat for the last many decades.”
Microsoft loses leverage over OpenAI if the board ever declares AGI
“The clause in the open AI charger says that if the board, which is nonprofit and controls the company decides that we've built AGI, then Microsoft has no leverage over, over open AI anymore.”
Dwarkesh: Hyperscaler ASICs will come online from all major providers
“And so that just sets up a huge incentive for all these hyperscalers to build their own ASICs, their own accelerators that replace the Nvidia ones. Which I think will come online over the next few years from all of them.”
GPT-5 will have noticeably improved reasoning capabilities from step-by-step training
“I think it'll definitely be better at reasoning, which is trivial to say, because the training methods that we've seen them talk about, like you, I'm sure you heard the talk about Q star and what it seems to be is training the model to rewarding it on getting …”