The Ledger

Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.

1statements match

1resolved → 0open claims → 0supported → 1contradicted →

why aren't all 1 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 0 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable

Prediction Didn’t hold up

The public will see a GPT-5 level AI model by year-end

“Because by the end of this year, we'll get to see hopefully what a GPT-V level model looks like, and we'll learn whether we're on the path to some kind of super intelligence.”

Dwarkesh Patel May 15, 2024 ▶ 2:21 AI Scaling, Alignment, and the Path to Superintelligence — With Dwarkesh Patel

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The Ledger

Turn any episode into a week of clips.