The Ledger

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why aren't all 3 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 1 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable

Prediction Open · timeframe May 2031
Shevelenko: Codex and proprietary AI assistants will never run rival models
“So the one thing that Codex is never going to be able to support is running Gemini models. You know, they will always be in the GPT family. Same thing for, you know, Claude, like they're not gonna, you know, have GPT models. Gemini is not gonna have Grok model…”
Dmitry Shevelenko May 7, 2026 ▶ 37:37 AI Agents: Mirage Or Real Revolution? — With Dmitry Shevelenko
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Shevelenko: Hardware will matter more as software faces commoditization pressure
“Apple's always been an incredible hardware company, and I think, ah, this is, you know, an era where hardware will matter even more because software is gonna face waves of commoditization pressure.”
Dmitry Shevelenko May 7, 2026 ▶ 2:38 AI Agents: Mirage Or Real Revolution? — With Dmitry Shevelenko
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Shevelenko predicts powerful reasoning models will run locally on Mac Minis
“Well, I certainly think that as models get more powerful, you will certainly be, and as, you know, local CPUs get more powerful as well, you're going to be able to distill powerful reasoning models to a size where they can run on a Mac mini.”
Dmitry Shevelenko May 7, 2026 ▶ 33:15 AI Agents: Mirage Or Real Revolution? — With Dmitry Shevelenko
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