The Ledger
Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.
why aren't all 3 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 0 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Kahneman: Human intelligence requires causal world representations to make predictions
“When we describe human intelligence, we describe, we speak of a representation of the world. And it's the representation that leads to prediction. That is, there is no shortcut to the prediction from the data. You go through a representation, which includes Ho…”
Kahneman: Human minds make sense of events retrospectively, not by constant prediction
“It's not so much that we have specific expectations about what's going to happen next. What is happening most of the time is that things happen and then we make sense of them. That is, we actually go back and fit them into what happened before.”
Kahneman: Internal world models and feeling unsurprised are System 1 functions
“The representation of the world That we have in our ability to anticipate or to feel unsurprised by what happens, which is I think more than anticipating, ah, that is all system one. That's all, you know, that's all automatic. It's effortless and it's very qui…”