The Ledger
Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.
why aren't all 8 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 0 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Véliz: Anonymous Wallets Made $1.2M Betting on Iran Attack
“Six anonymous accounts earned 1.2 million dollars on a prediction market betting for the attack on Iran, and some of those wallets were funded hours before, which suggests that they might have had insider information, and if they had insider information, did t…”
Véliz: The Markup found mortgage algorithms denied Black applicants with identical profiles
“The markup had a very long story a few years ago about how two people who had applied for a mortgage had been denied, and when the markup investigated, their file looked exactly the same or very similar to other two people who happened to be white, and they, a…”
Véliz: The safest countries globally are not the most surveilled
“The safest countries in the world are not the most surveilled ones. So Spain is one example. It has some of the lower statistics for any kind of crime, including homicide and so on, violent crimes. And it's not better surveilled Than the US or the UK. And in f…”
Véliz: People posting under real identities online are actually more aggressive
“Even though it's very intuitive to think that way, when you look at the empirical data, it shows that people who are identified online tend to be more aggressive, and then they tend to be more followed and more successful in that aggression.”
Véliz: HBR study shows AI makes workers less productive
“There was a paper recently at the Harvard Business Review that suggested that even when people think they're being more productive with AI, when you have researchers look at it, they're being less productive because they're spending a lot of time fixing what t…”
Véliz: Politicians Bet on Themselves to Manipulate Prediction Markets
“If you want to influence public perception and you have enough money, you can bet heavily on something or someone to make it look more popular, and we already have examples of politicians betting on themselves.”
Véliz: Predictive algorithms are actively used for sentencing in justice systems
“No, but we're using predictive algorithms in the justice system for sentencing, for many aspects in the justice system, and for the reasons that we explored with insurance, or with loans, or with jobs, that's very problematic.”
Véliz: Google Flu Trends failed because search query data was too noisy
“When Google tried to predict flus and pandemic type events it tried for years and years and years, it increased the complexity, it increased the data, and it could never do it, and eventually it shut down.
Partly because it was relying on people's searches,
Pe…”