The Ledger
Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.
why aren't all 6 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 0 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Cherny: Next-Token Prediction Forces AI Models to Plan Ahead
“It's crazy, like, you teach this thing to predict the next word, and somehow, if the next word is hard enough, it has to learn to really plan ahead, and it has to learn how to do all of this.”
Cherny: The defining difference of an AI agent is tool use
“The thing that made quad code different from chatbots at the time was quad code can use tools. And this is it. Like, this is just the difference. It's, with a chatbot, you're going back and forth and you're talking, but an agent, and Cloud Code is an agent, it…”
Cherny: Rapid AI progress requires continuously retesting previously failed tasks
“Every month there's a step change in what it can do. And as a user of this technology, it's just quite hard because you have to kind of keep retraining. You have to keep retrying. You always need this like beginner mindset to retry the technology and use it fo…”
Cherny: Do not optimize AI workflows early because top innovators are unpredictable
“The challenge is you can't identify these engineers and these people ahead of time. You don't know who they are. And it's almost always going to surprise you. And so the thing you want to do is let people experiment, give them safety, and then once there's som…”
Cherny: AI models should optimize for intelligence before efficiency
“I think we should probably optimize for intelligence. That's the most important thing. So even if it's like a little bit less efficient, but it's more intelligent and it lets you do more things, that's really useful because the efficiency optimization comes af…”
Cherny: New AI Users Are Often More Ambitious Than Veteran Users
“I think for people that have kind of grown up with these products and they've seen previous versions, they might not be as ambitious as they could, but for people that are new to the products, I often see them using quad code and cowork for things that I would…”