why aren't all 8 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public
record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 1 checkable
ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't;
assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card:
▮▮▮▮▮ certainty ·
▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Srinivas: Google quadrupled an engineer's pay to stop Perplexity recruitment
“There was one amazing candidate that I tried to recruit from Google. This candidate used to work in the, I mean, he still works there, in the Google search team. Like, it's not one of the AI people. And the moment he told them that he's gonna join us, they qua…”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Srinivas: Perplexity link clicks will be more valuable than Google clicks
“Our sense is also that the value of a link click on perplexity will be more than on Google. You know, your pitch has to be a way higher intent to still leave the site and go.”
Prediction Held up
Srinivas: Anthropic will release a model better than GPT-4 in 2024
“I actually think they will end up creating a model better than GPT-IV this year. Like, it, it's sort of almost guaranteed to happen. So I believe it's going to happen with CLAW-III.”
Prediction Held up
Srinivas: OpenAI will stay ahead of competitors with GPT-4.5 or GPT-5
“I'm sure there's a GPT 4.5 or five that will stay ahead. So it really is going to be a cat and mouse game there where Anthropics playing catch up and OpenAI is ahead through multimodal capabilities, reasoning capabilities, and things, things like that.”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Srinivas: OpenAI's ultimate value will lie in ChatGPT, not model APIs
“I think OpenAI's value will lie in the ChatGPT product itself. The end-to-end product, and they're going to face competition there, too.”
Assertion Contradicted
Srinivas: 50% to 60% of Character.AI Users Are Under 20
“It's more popular among the younger generation, like 50 to 60% of their user base is under the age of 20. Because they're using it to talk to imaginary anime characters and things like that.”
Assertion Open · timeframe Feb 2027
Srinivas: Wikipedia will not build its own GPT
“No, they're not going to build their own GPT. I've spoken to him and he uses our product and he likes our product a lot.”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Srinivas: Amazon faces Google-like ad conflicts with conversational shopping
“For Amazon to do this hard, obviously, because they do rely on advertising revenue on amazon.com to keep amazon.com profitable, so they have, like, similar problems to Google there”