why aren't all 6 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public
record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 0 checkable
ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't;
assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card:
▮▮▮▮▮ certainty ·
▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Masad: Model makers undercutting on price will destroy the ecosystem
“If they're gonna compete by undercutting everyone on price, they're gonna destroy the ecosystem.”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
The First AGI Lab Will Not Trigger a Runaway Intelligence Explosion
“Whomever reaches AGI first, they're not going to go into intelligence explosion and just like suddenly, you know, super intelligence gets born. People, you know, other labs will catch up really quickly. And then, you know, there's going to be a lot of models. …”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Masad: Venture-scale tech companies will still need to hire engineers
“Now, if you're building a venture scale company and you want to like get to hundreds of millions of dollars of revenue and you want to, you know, become 1,000,000,010 billion, a hundred billion dollar company, you're going to have to hire engineers.”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Masad: Founders can soon build wealth-generating businesses without developers
“But if you're trying to build a company that creates a really great living for you, even, you know, you can, Potentially get rich from it. You, I think we're almost there where you can do it on your own without any developers.”
Prediction Held up
AI Models Will Test and Verify Their Own Work Within Six Months
“Like I think over the next three or six months, I think we're going to see machine learning models being able to test and verify their work.”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
AI Coding Tools Will Only Marginally Speed Up Next-Gen Model Development
“I don't think it's going to have anything more than you know you know, marginal improvement on, on speed to the next model.”