The Ledger
Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.
why aren't all 6 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 0 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Wang: China's DeepSeek produced the first replication of OpenAI's o1 model
“OpenAI released O-one and released the O-one preview a number of months ago... Yeah, this is OpenAI's advanced reasoning model, which is great at sort of scientific reasoning and mathematical reasoning and reasoning and code, et cetera. And the very first repl…”
Wang: Militaries will deploy AI agents in active combat in 2025
“20, 25 will be the year where we start to see several militaries around the world start utilizing AI agents in active warfighting environments to great effect.”
Wang: AI will eventually formulate hypotheses, run tests, and conduct research autonomously
“Eventually It'll be able to start making its own hypotheses, running those tests on its own, and sort of ultimately making its own sort of discoveries or realizations or sort of conduct its own research.”
Wang: Biden administration forced UAE to choose Microsoft over Huawei
“I think one of the best examples of this was in the past year, the Biden admin posed to the UAE, hey, which way are you going to go in terms of AI technology? You can either go into the sort of Huawei China stack, or you could go into the Microsoft United Stat…”
Wang: Drone warfare in Ukraine is increasingly enhanced by generative AI
“By the way, I think that the drone warfare in Ukraine is becoming more and more Enhanced by generative AI and more advanced autonomy.”
Wang: Capital flows into China's startup sector have collapsed precipitously
“One undeniable trend over the past, let's call it five years has been the sort of the collapse of the Chinese startup sector. And this is really driven by policies from the CCP to significantly, you know, they killed certain startup industries. They really lik…”