The Ledger
Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.
why aren't all 38 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 38 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Kantrowitz: OpenAI and Anthropic head toward trillion-dollar IPOs within next year
“We have open AI and Anthropic. Now they're going to do fifty billion dollars in revenue this year. They're both headed towards trillion dollar IPOs within the next year.”
Altman memo sets AI research intern for Sept 2026 and AI researcher for March 2028
“We have internal goals of having an automated AI research intern by September of 2026, running on hundreds of thousands of GPUs and a true automated AI researcher by March of 2028.”
Kantrowitz: Meta will partner with Google or OpenAI on smart glasses
“Over the next year, you will see Meta bring in other AI models. You will see them partner with Google. You might see them partner with OpenAI.”
Kantrowitz: Grammarly will go extinct as LLMs replace grammar tools
“And here's my hot take on Grammarly. I think they're going to go extinct. I think I wouldn't call them a rapper because they were around before large language models, but all this logic that they painstakingly built into their program and all the AI developmen…”
Kantrowitz: Regulators will likely break up Google and potentially Meta
“The vibe here is that we're going to see breakups very likely of Google and potentially of Facebook.”
Kantrowitz: Selling Raw AI Intelligence Alone Won't Build Trillion-Dollar Companies
“I think that if there was a belief that you could build a trillion dollar company just by selling intelligence from the API alone not gonna happen most likely.
but what could happen is you, if you're the developer of the intelligence, you can build products w…”
Kantrowitz: Tech Capex Will Hit $700 Billion This Year
“And we're going to see seven hundred billion dollars in capital expenditures this year”
Kantrowitz: Anthropic and OpenAI will both have trillion-dollar IPOs
“We're looking at, they're both, Anthropik and OpenAI are both gonna have trillion dollar IPOs, and we'll have many large companies, I think, that will follow them in the generative AI world.”
Kantrowitz: Apple Will Make Big Acquisitions in John Ternus's First Year
“I think Apple's gonna make some big acquisitions in Ternus' first year for him to set the tone that it's gonna be different, and I think that's good.”
Kantrowitz: Paramount and Warner Bros. Discovery will inevitably merge
“Well, first of all, it's just going to get worse for two reasons. One is we're starting to see consolidation in the space. Like you have Netflix as this clear winter and then and then Paramount and Warner Brothers Discovery are going to tie up.”
Anthropic will likely IPO at a $1 trillion valuation
“Anthropic is probably going to go public at a trillion.”
Kantrowitz: OpenAI Will Go Public as a Trillion-Dollar Company
“And he did, you know, he did take a nonprofit and turn it into, you know, it's going to be a trillion dollar IPO company.”
Kantrowitz: Apple Is on Schedule to Release a Foldable Phone in 2026
“Apple is on schedule to release one this upcoming year, so why not wait?”
Kantrowitz: Anthropic Will File S-1 or Set IPO Timeline in 2026
“My prediction is, while opening a dozen IPO, Anthropic at least sets a timeline. If not, you know, files in S-One next year.”
Kantrowitz: Amazon will achieve 75% automation across fulfillment centers
“I think Amazon's going to accomplish this goal. I think they're going to get to that 75% automation, and I think that is going to be, you know, I don't know, I think it's going to be a clear problem.”
Kantrowitz: OpenAI is likely to IPO within next couple years
“OpenAI is trying to move to this new structure.
In fact, it's decided on a new structure, and that means it's likely to IPO sometime in the next couple years, you would think, given the amount of money they raised.”
Kantrowitz: OpenAI and Jony Ive's hardware will not launch next year
“I'm going to say, I'm calling, I think they want it to happen next year.
I'm calling that it's not going to happen next year.”
Kantrowitz: Memory Chip Valuations Will Inevitably Fall
“That will fall. It has to fall inevitably, right? I mean, not investment advice, but that has to fall.”
Kantrowitz: AI chatbots will directly manage trading strategies and bank funds
“The second you start researching stocks in ChatGPT, we're going to get to a place where ChatGPT or Claude will offer to build a strategy for you. We'll have access to your bank account. We'll ask if you want to portion some money towards, you know, giving this…”
Kantrowitz: Data Center Moratoriums Will Be on the 2028 Ballot
“The idea that moratoriums could happen, maybe not tomorrow, but like it's going to be on the ballot in 2028. There are going to be pro moratorium candidates.”
Kantrowitz: Federal data center moratorium bill has no chance of passing
“And of course, there's this bill that Bernie and AOC introduced about a data center moratorium to, you know, be national and, you know, there's no chance of that passing”
Alex Kantrowitz: Governments cannot practically enforce bans on large language models
“They won't be banned. It's impossible. I mean, how can you ban them? Are you going to go and take your, is the government going to go grab your Mac mini out of your office where you've downloaded a version of deep seek and be like, all right, right to the poke…”
Kantrowitz predicts Anthropic will still reach an agreement with the Pentagon
“And ok, on the Pentagon side, my guess is they still end up coming to an agreement with the Pentagon.”
Kantrowitz: OpenAI will raise tech and Gulf funding rounds before IPO
“Well, we have, we definitely have, we'll have this round, which is going to be the tech giants round. Then we'll have the Gulf state round number one, the Gulf state round number two, and then IPO is probably what, the way it will play out.”
Kantrowitz: Google will ship its AI smart glasses in 2026
“I think the news is that it's going to ship this year. Google's AI glasses.”
Kantrowitz: Multi-billion funding rounds for ex-OpenAI talent will continue
“Definitely not. I mean, if you think about, just think about where AI is today compared to where it was then. I think we could both agree that the AI, the promise of AI is more real now than it was.”
Kantrowitz: OpenAI will not IPO in 2026
“I don't think so either. No, that's another one of mine. No opening IPO in twenty-twenty-six.”
Kantrowitz: OpenAI will be a trillion-dollar IPO company
“Look, Opening Eye is going to be a trillion dollar IPO company.”
Kantrowitz doubts Elon Musk will ever receive his full trillion-dollar payout
“I doubt he'll ever get the trillion.”
Kantrowitz: Apple will release a folding iPhone next year and curved glass after
“This is the first of three consecutive years of new model releases. It's going to start with the iPhone. Air this year, next year, they're going to move to the fold in the year after the curved glass”
Kantrowitz expects foldable iPhone AppleCare will cost $300 to $400
“It's a 2000 dollar plus phone. I'm sure it'll be 300 dollars maybe 300 dollars for two years or 400 for two years to get the care package on it and then services revenue grow right with it.”
Apple Will Likely Raise iPhone Prices to Fund Its AI Buildout
“They're probably going to raise prices on iPhone, and it would be much better to do so and increase your margin because of you know, the AI build out then potentially, you know, you just having a hunger for more margins and more money.”
Kantrowitz: Google will inevitably catch up to Anthropic and OpenAI frontier models
“Google has shown it can catch up in terms of capabilities of models. It will inevitably catch up again to whatever Fable is and GPT-Five.”
Kantrowitz: ChatGPT will reach one billion users by OpenAI's IPO
“Its own proprietary, eight hundred million user app, which will definitely be a billion by IPO day.”
Kantrowitz: Apple will soon release Siri-powered smart glasses to rival Meta's offering
“And I think it's not going to be too long until we see Apple build a product like this of their own, if not one with an enhanced Siri to hit one of your most favorite things.”
Kantrowitz: Hundreds of Google Search engineers were reassigned to Google DeepMind
“Just one example I got from the story, hundreds of engineers from search, which is the most important product. At Google, which is responsible for more than half the revenue. Hundreds of engineers went from search to Google DeepMind just to, you know, give you…”