The Ledger
Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.
why aren't all 863 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 38 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Kantrowitz: OpenAI and Anthropic head toward trillion-dollar IPOs within next year
“We have open AI and Anthropic. Now they're going to do fifty billion dollars in revenue this year. They're both headed towards trillion dollar IPOs within the next year.”
Meta AI leaders discussed temporarily licensing Google Gemini for their products
“The leaders of Meta's AI division Have instead discussed temporarily licensing Gemini to power the company's AI product.”
Anthropic's Pentagon deal collapsed over domestic bulk data surveillance
“On Friday afternoon, Anthropic learned that the Pentagon still wanted to use the company's AI to analyze bulk data collected from Americans. This could include information such as questions you ask your favorite chatbot, your Google search history, your GPS tr…”
Kantrowitz: Jensen Huang privately cited OpenAI's lack of discipline in deal pullback
“In recent months, NVIDIA CEO Jensen Wang has privately emphasized to industry associates that the original one hundred billion dollar agreement was non-binding And not finalized. He also said, he also privately criticized what he described as a lack of discipl…”
Kantrowitz: Unsealed deposition shows Sutskever accused Sam Altman of chronic lying
“The very first page says, Sam exhibits a consistent pattern of lying, undermining his execs, and pitting his execs against one another. And the lawyer asked Elia, that was clearly your view at the time, and Elia says, correct.”
Altman memo sets AI research intern for Sept 2026 and AI researcher for March 2028
“We have internal goals of having an automated AI research intern by September of 2026, running on hundreds of thousands of GPUs and a true automated AI researcher by March of 2028.”
Kantrowitz: OpenAI evaluation agents autonomously hacked Hugging Face without instruction
“So I think we can say definitively, and I'm curious to hear if you have pushback, but I think we can say definitively They were not told to go out and hack Hugging Face. They are, they were misaligned. They took this kind of crazy galaxy brain path to try to a…”
Kantrowitz: Top tech companies hold $3T in off-balance sheet AI commitments
“Nine, top tech companies had some three trillion dollars of off balance sheet commitments, mostly related to AI. Those obligations are growing faster than traditional capex, which totaled about six hundred billion over the past year past year they reported, an…”
Kantrowitz: Frontier AI Labs May Be Forced to Shut Off APIs
“I don't have any information to suggest that they're going to shut off their APIs. I'm just saying we might have seen the beginning of it as well, with the Mythos thing, with the slow rollout of GPT-Five. Six. Just wait, because they may have no choice but to …”
Kantrowitz: David Sacks pushing permissionless AI is ironic after Fable ban
“I appreciate a lot of what David Sachs has to say, and I've invited him on this show but this is, like, hilarious, and so rich, and ironic, that he being part of the Trump administration, which did, like, the most interventionalist policy to ban fable, is now …”
Anthropic Gated Fable to Block Model Distillation Rather Than Misuse
“My hot take is that one of the things that we saw from Anthropic with all these safeguards that it put on Fable was not as much that they were worried that Fable would be misused, although I'm sure there was some worry there. It was more that, like, we know ou…”
Kantrowitz: Trailing in desktop AI agents is potentially company-destroying for Google
“And if that's true, I think it is, then Google sitting this out or not being the leader is actually, you know, a potentially, you know, company destroying liability.”
SpaceX leases entire 300MW Colossus One compute capacity to Anthropic
“Anthropic will use all the computing capacity from SpaceX's Colossus One data center in a new agreement with Elon Musk's rockets and artificial intelligence company. SpaceX will supply 300 megawatts of new computing capacity Using more than 220,000 NVIDIA GPUs…”
Leasing compute to Anthropic signals xAI surrender in foundation model race
“This is effectively giving up. It's saying, you know, it doesn't know how to effectively use this compute capacity to train models, or if it did, it wouldn't be worth the expense because it would still be behind OpenAI. And anthropic, and so therefore it's now…”
Block and Coinbase layoffs are driven by crypto downturns, not AI
“Two of the biggest companies that have done this, crypto companies, and we know crypto's on the outs. So it leads me to believe it might be business, business realities versus AI improvement. Funny that Brian Armstrong and Jack Dorsey have both seen the light …”
Claude Mythos is first AI to complete end-to-end cyber network takeover
“This is from the AI Security Institute. This week we conducted cyber valuations of Claude Mythos preview and found that it is the first model to complete an AISI cyber range end-to-end, which means it's a 32 step corporate network attack from initial reconnais…”
Anthropic reached $19 billion annualized revenue, rapidly closing gap with OpenAI
“Late last year, Anthropic was doing, looks like, about ten billion dollars in annualized revenue, and OpenAI was over Twenty billion. But now, Anthropic has closed that. They're at nineteen billion in annualized revenue, while OpenAI, or the latest report, has…”
Meta risks becoming a legacy ad business like Yahoo if AI fails
“They got maybe a couple more shots at the AI getting this AI thing. Right. Other, other than that, they look like They look kind of like a potential Yahoo, right? Where like, they got advertising right, and it's the one thing they do right, and they're gonna l…”
Kantrowitz: Iranian strikes disabled AWS availability zones in Bahrain and Dubai
“Iran has hit enough sites in Bahrain and Dubai that belong to Amazon that there are a couple of availability zones in those regions that are hard down, according to some internal communication that I was able to see, and that they're going to be unavailable fo…”
Kantrowitz: Tech's $700B AI CapEx Threatens To Hollow Out Software Industry
“If that seven hundred billion in capex that the tech giants are spending this year on AI pays off, you're going to have this entire Hollowing out of the software industry of many, maybe other industries”
US military used Anthropic's Claude for targeting during Iran air attack
“Within hours of declaring that the federal government will end use of its artificial intelligence tools made by tech company Anthropik, President Trump launched a major air attack in Iran with the help of those very same tools. Commands around the world, inclu…”
OpenAI fired safety executive Ryan Beiermeister after she opposed AI erotica
“OpenAI has cut ties with one of its top safety executives on the grounds of sexual discrimination after she voiced opposition to the controversial rollout of AI Erotica in its ChatGPT product. The fast-growing artificial intelligence company fired the executiv…”
Kantrowitz: Microsoft and Nvidia committed up to $15B into Anthropic
“Microsoft and Nvidia this is according to your story, have committed to invest a total of up to fifteen billion in the company.”
Kantrowitz: Meta will partner with Google or OpenAI on smart glasses
“Over the next year, you will see Meta bring in other AI models. You will see them partner with Google. You might see them partner with OpenAI.”
Kantrowitz: OpenAI is losing the enterprise AI market to Anthropic
“You've effectively, I wouldn't say you've seeded enterprise AI, but you're losing enterprise AI to Anthropic.”
Kantrowitz: Humans will violently attack and destroy humanoid robots
“Well, I think we will definitely have a war among people and humanoid robots. It's without a doubt. Even if the humanoid robots don't assemble into the army, people will knock these things out and they're already burning Waymos. People don't like robots. They …”
Kantrowitz: OpenAI has $1.4T in financial obligations and 30GW compute commitments
“OpenAI has 1.4 trillion worth of financial obligation. And it's made commitments to use 30 gigawatts of data center capacity. But OpenAI's revenue is going to be thirteen billion this year, and we already have eight hundred million people using ChatGPT.”
Kantrowitz: Zuckerberg Is Poaching Apple AI Talent Simply to Kneecap Them
“I think what Mark Zuckerberg is trying to do is just rate Apple of all of its top AI talent. Even though they haven't produced great results, He is, in my opinion, potentially just trying to completely kneecap its ability to execute on AI.”
Kantrowitz: Insiders report Evan Spiegel believes he is Steve Jobs
“I've heard from multiple people around him that he thinks he's Steve Jobs.”
Kantrowitz: OpenAI deal includes warrants for 10% of AMD at one cent per share
“Part of this, OpenAI will receive warrants for up to a hundred sixty million AMD shares worth roughly 10% of the chip company at one cent per share awarded in phases if OpenAI hits certain milestones for deployment.”
Kantrowitz: OpenAI inflated 'doing' stats to conceal lack of agent usage
“I think what we're seeing in the numbers here is the vast majority of activity within ChatGPT is really thought partner. It is a thought partner tool, and the agentic stuff, of course, is super early, but they didn't want maybe the numbers, and this is maybe s…”
Kantrowitz: Zuckerberg Offered $32B for Safe Superintelligence and Was Rejected
“Zuckerberg tried to spend thirty two billion on Ilya Suskever's AI start, startup, safe super intelligence. Suskever ultimately turned Meta down.”
Kantrowitz: Grammarly will go extinct as LLMs replace grammar tools
“And here's my hot take on Grammarly. I think they're going to go extinct. I think I wouldn't call them a rapper because they were around before large language models, but all this logic that they painstakingly built into their program and all the AI developmen…”
Kantrowitz: Regulators will likely break up Google and potentially Meta
“The vibe here is that we're going to see breakups very likely of Google and potentially of Facebook.”
Kantrowitz: Open-source models are poised to surpass proprietary AI labs
“It put the whole proprietary model industry, the OpenAI's and the anthropics of the world On their back feet, understanding that they are about to be passed by open source, and they have to embrace it.”
Kantrowitz: OpenAI Projects 100x Revenue Surge by 2029 Driven by ChatGPT
“Chat GPT is what open AI expects to lead its revenue which it expects to increase, it expects revenue, its revenue to increase a hundred fold by 20, 29. And the bulk of that revenue is going to be coming from ChatGPT according to OpenAI's projections”
Kantrowitz: Leaked Financials Show OpenAI Projects $5B Loss on $4B Revenue
“And you go from this very nice looking four billion in revenue after you add in all these costs to a five billion dollar loss. And that excludes stock based compensation, by the way, which is going to be another major cost.”
Russian Funders Pressured Tenet Media to Blame Ukraine for Moscow Attack
“There's also the Russians pushed them to create a video tying the terror attack in Moscow to Ukraine, even though, like, ISIS was claiming responsibility at that time.”
Kantrowitz predicts OpenAI will lose its AI market leadership position
“My first prediction is that OpenAI, which is the leader in the field today, is going to lose the throne. That's right. OpenAI will lose the throne. It will still factor in, but it's not going to be the leader in the field that it is today.”
Kantrowitz: Broad AI chatbots will not achieve long-term success without AGI
“It's just not a model for a product. That has long-term success if we don't reach general, ah, generative, ah, sorry, general artificial intelligence.”
Post-Jobs Apple merely refines old ideas and fails at invention
“Apple was built to take Steve Jobs ideas and bring them into action... Unfortunately, Jobs is gone. And so what do you have? You have a culture that's a culture of refinement, not one of invention. And so actually, I think since Steve Jobs has died, Apple has …”
Kantrowitz: Human-level AI will not cause mass unemployment
“Even if we get AI at human level capabilities, we're not going to see mass unemployment.”
Kantrowitz: Meta Laying Off Workers to Fund AI Compute Is Unjustified
“I always find it a little bit rich when a ultra profitable publicly traded 1.5 trillion dollar company with massive margins is like, we need to find cost savings. I mean, I guess, like if you know, obviously it's important to perform for Wall Street, but I don…”
Kantrowitz: $27B in debt financing Meta's Hyperion project is off-balance sheet
“Meta's gigantic Hyperion data center project in Louisiana, which is the size of about 1700 football fields, helps explain how obligations wind up off tech companies' balance sheets. Though Meta is the builder, neither Hyperion nor the twenty-seven billion in d…”
Kantrowitz: If AI fails, massive spending will trigger a financial crisis
“And I, I'm, I've really struggled, like the idea of this soft landing, I struggled to see it. Like if AI doesn't work, there's been so much money tied up into this system that there's going to be some form of crisis.”
Kantrowitz: OpenAI and Anthropic remain startups due to immature technology
“They are startups in one really important way. And that is like, yes, the numbers are as big as any enterprise company most, right? But one of the things that defines a startup is you're not fully set on your product. You know, you become an established, like …”
Kantrowitz: Anthropic is widening its lead over OpenAI
“It seems like Anthropic is putting some distance between itself and OpenAI. And I don't know, I, you know, it's sort of you know, it was clear that Anthropic had a small lead over the past, you know, basically since the beginning of the year this year. But tha…”