why aren't all 16 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public
record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 1 checkable
ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't;
assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card:
▮▮▮▮▮ certainty ·
▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Ghonim: Social platforms adopted content moderation due to advertisers, not public pressure
“Facebook YouTube did not want to be the ministry of truth until the advertisers decided they're not happy. And then the ministry of truth was launched you know, which is fine. I mean, I guess I guess at the end of the day, it's their platform, but I'm just say…”
Prediction Open · timeframe Dec 2030
Cramer: Meta and YouTube will capture 50% to 70% of ad market
“In the end, Mark is going to have, along with YouTube, 50%, if not 70% of the advertising market. And that's a very big market.”
Opinion
Clegg: Meta Apps Are Now Entertainment Pipelines Competing With TikTok
“The meta social media apps are now competing more and more with Tik Tok and YouTube. They're becoming, they're not really stages on which people generate content, communicate with each other. They are of course pipelines, which entertainment and entertaining a…”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Lemoine: LaMDA 2 was built to connect every Google AI backend
“So Lambda two, the most recent incarnation of the system, it really is Every Google AI all plugged into each other. The chatbot system is just the language center for a much, much larger AI. It has access to every Google AI system as a back end. So Lambda is G…”
Insight
Kantrowitz: Social Networks Are Dead and Have Become Pure Entertainment
“There's no such thing as social networks anymore in this world that you're hoping for, where there's no reverse chronological order, or there's no algorithmic feed.
it, it's long past the point in time where that was even a possibility, and I think that
You k…”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Roy: AI Will Scale Learning Democratization at 1,000x YouTube's Impact
“I kind of look at this like what YouTube did for learning.
This is going to be at like a thousand x scale.”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Kurian: Google Search, Cloud, and YouTube share the same inference stack
“And one benefit we have at Google is all our services, whether that's search or us or YouTube, this inferencing of the same stack and same model series. So the model learns very quickly from all that reinforcement learning feedback and gets better and better.”
Opinion
Roy: Spinning off Chrome or YouTube beats forcing search syndication
“I think it's much cleaner spinoff Chrome. Spin off YouTube, spin off Android, one of those options, something like that would just make a lot more sense to me.”
Assertion Supported
Tenet Media Paid YouTubers $100K Per Video for Just 7K Views
“Let's see, like maybe 12 dollars you know, for every like 10,000 views, and these YouTubers were getting a 100,000 dollars per video, and some of the videos on the tenant media channel were getting like 7000 views.”
Opinion
Children interacting with AI chatbots is preferable to using existing social media
“Potentially, but I think it'll honestly be better than what they're currently doing, which is YouTube and TikTok and Twitter, you know, Facebook and so forth. So I would prefer my kids are playing with chatbots than they're playing with what they currently hav…”
Assertion Supported
Callaghan: YouTube removed Channel 5's Miami Spring Break video for a week
“That first video, Miami Beach Spring Break, was taken down from medical misinformation for an entire week because someone said, fuck COVID. Yeah, and said they didn't want to get vaccinated. They got taken down for a whole week.”
Assertion Supported
Streaming grew 6 percent overall while Netflix market share remained completely flat
“So streaming over the past year has been up six percent. Netflix has been flat. In terms of it's the share of streaming or Netflix growth has been no. Netflix has not increased share despite the fact that streaming as a percentage of all TV or screen viewing h…”
Insight
Hayes: Good Work Exists in Any Medium Despite Platform Incentives
“I think it's possible to do good work in any medium. Like, there are people who do great stuff on TikTok, great stuff on Instagram Reels. There are people posting on Blue Sky and X and Threads that I, like, learn from. There are amazing YouTube videos that I'v…”
Assertion Supported
Murdock: DeepMind's MuZero algorithm dramatically reduces YouTube streaming bandwidth
“We were able to take an algorithm developed for games. That was a master in chess and use that to dramatically reduce the bandwidth requirement to stream YouTube videos.”
Disclosure
Callaghan: Channel 5 is demonetized on YouTube and relies solely on Patreon
“All of our stuff's demonetized. We only make money through Patreon.”
Assertion Supported
Kantrowitz: 73% of teens use YouTube daily, 15% constantly
“Overall, 73% of teens say they go on YouTube daily. This share includes 15% who describe their use as almost constant.”