why aren't all 6 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public
record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 0 checkable
ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't;
assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card:
▮▮▮▮▮ certainty ·
▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Opinion
Petersen: Ending de minimis benefits Amazon and Walmart against cross-border competitors
“For the de minimis thing in particular, I think Amazon's better off with de minimis not existing. Because de minimis is shipping direct from China to the U.S. Consumer. It skips their fulfillment network. Which is where they put all the capex and huge competit…”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Petersen: Shein and Temu will survive end of de minimis exemption
“Well, they're very big global companies first off, so yes. And they're already finding ways, you know, they have to pay duties, but they're just back to being a level playing field, so I think they're, you're gonna see them, one, produce in other countries, an…”
Prediction Held up
Petersen: Asian e-commerce giants will absorb duties if de minimis ends
“My suspicion from having analyzed a few of these and working with them is that the companies will keep, keep going and just have to pay the duties.”
Assertion Supported
Petersen: Temu reached 25% of Amazon's scale within five years
“That's what Letimu, Get to 25% of Amazon's scale in five years is that they skip all that fulfillment center infrastructure.”
Prediction Held up
Kantrowitz: Temu and Shein will face US regulatory action or ban
“I think that Timu and Sheehan are going to face some action, whether it is those higher taxes, and I would not be, or a ban, and I would not be surprised by a ban.”
Assertion Contradicted
Kantrowitz: Temu and Shein took 50% of Gen Z Black Friday spend
“I think we had some Black Friday statistics that we cited on the show this year, which is that those two retailers, Timu and Sheehan, made up about 50% of Gen Z's Black Friday purchasing.”