The Ledger

Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.

clear all ✕

why aren't all 3 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 0 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable

Assertion Partly supported
GPT-5 and Chinese AI model Kimi readily find bugs and write exploits
“You can just ask GPT-V to go find these bugs and it will go do it for you. You can just ask Kimi, which is an open source Chinese model. It will go write you these exploits.”
Alex Stamos Jun 28, 2026 ▶ 7:11 AI’s True Cyber Risk: Fable, Mythos, China, and The Rest — With Alex Stamos
Prediction Didn’t hold up
The public will see a GPT-5 level AI model by year-end
“Because by the end of this year, we'll get to see hopefully what a GPT-V level model looks like, and we'll learn whether we're on the path to some kind of super intelligence.”
Dwarkesh Patel May 15, 2024 ▶ 2:21 AI Scaling, Alignment, and the Path to Superintelligence — With Dwarkesh Patel
Assertion Partly supported
Lightcap: GPT-5 dynamically chooses whether to reason deeply per query
“GPT-V is it's our next generation flagship model. It does something really interesting, which is it actually combines into one model the ability to dynamically choose whether to think hard about a problem and reason about it to give you an answer or not.”
Brad Lightcap Aug 8, 2025 ▶ 0:30 OpenAI COO Brad Lightcap: GPT-5's Capabilities, Why It Matters, and Where AI Goes Next
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