The Ledger

Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.

clear all ✕

why aren't all 3 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 0 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable

Assertion Supported
Marcus: OpenAI's Project Orion failed and became GPT-4.5
“So OpenAI tried to build GPT-V and they had a thing called Project Orion and it actually failed. And eventually got released as GPT four and a half. So what they thought was going to be GPT five just didn't meet expectations.”
Gary Marcus May 7, 2025 ▶ 3:34 Are We at the End of Ai Progress? — With Gary Marcus
Assertion Partly supported
Chen: Users prefer GPT-4.5 over GPT-4o by 60% to 70% margins
“When we look at, kind of, comparisons against GPT-FORO you'll see that everyday use cases, people prefer, you know, by a margin of 60% for actually productivity and knowledge work against GPT-FORO, there's almost like a 70% preference rate.”
Mark Chen Feb 27, 2025 ▶ 5:14 OpenAI's Chief Research Officer on GPT 4.5's Debut, Scaling Laws, And Teaching EQ to Models
Prediction Held up
Srinivas: OpenAI will stay ahead of competitors with GPT-4.5 or GPT-5
“I'm sure there's a GPT 4.5 or five that will stay ahead. So it really is going to be a cat and mouse game there where Anthropics playing catch up and OpenAI is ahead through multimodal capabilities, reasoning capabilities, and things, things like that.”
Aravind Srinivas Feb 15, 2024 ▶ 40:45 Perplexity CEO Aravind Srinivas: How AI Challenges Google
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