The Ledger

Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.

clear all ✕

why aren't all 2 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 2 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable

Prediction Open · timeframe May 2029
Training next-generation frontier AI models will soon require gigawatts of power
“And then how much, basically, would it cost in terms of energy to train a GPT four level model, a 4.5 level model, five, whatever. And you get into the gigawatts pretty soon.”
Dwarkesh Patel May 15, 2024 ▶ 21:58 AI Scaling, Alignment, and the Path to Superintelligence — With Dwarkesh Patel
Assertion Open · timeframe Aug 2026
OpenAI's GPT-4.5 Was Built as a Trillion-Parameter Dense Model
“GPT, 4.5 was an experimental model from OpenAI. It was the idea, let's train a trillion parameter dense model, meaning it is not sparse, meaning all the token, all the neurons are activated on every request. And it was so slow. It's really hard to run these th…”
Amjad Masad Aug 11, 2025 ▶ 38:10 Vibe Coding: Everything You Need To Know — With Amjad Masad
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